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Trade Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Poland’s Agri-Food Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Hagemejer

    (University of Warsaw
    CASE Center for Economic and Social Research)

  • Jan Jakub Michałek

    (University of Warsaw)

  • Karolina Pawlak

    (Poznan University of Life Sciences)

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the implications of trade liberalization under the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) for the Polish economy. We analyze the level of tariffs and non-tariff protection in the US and in the EU and identify products particularly “sensitive” from the point of view of TTIP liberalization. With the help of a partial equilibrium model, we simulate the trade implications of the TTIP for Poland’s trade with the US at the detailed product level. We analyze trade creation and diversion effects of tariff elimination and partial removal of non-tariff barriers. We found that the TTIP can increase Poland’s trade with the US by around 45 percent with a limited impact on its trade with the European Union (EU) members. Subsequent general equilibrium simulations show that trade diversion effects of the TTIP are substantial, while the welfare benefits of the agreement are limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hagemejer & Jan Jakub Michałek & Karolina Pawlak, 2021. "Trade Implications of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership for Poland’s Agri-Food Trade," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(1), pages 75-103, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:13:y:2021:i:1:p:75-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; tariff equivalents of NTMs; general equilibrium models; partial equilibrium models; agri-food sector; Poland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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