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Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles

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  • Walter C. Labys
  • Dominique Badillo
  • Jean-Baptiste Lesourd

Abstract

[fre] Les prix des produits agricoles ont depuis longtemps fait l'objet d'études en termes de cycles. L'objectif de cet article est de proposer une nouvelle analyse du comportement des prix de différentes matières premières agricoles sur la base de cycles à moyen terme mis en évidence grâce à des méthodes récemment développées. Les cycles sont identifiés, ce qui nécessite l'application de techniques appropriées de stationnarisation, et l'utilisation d'une méthode qui suit de près la procédure du NBER, sans toutefois s'identifier à celle-ci, afin de déterminer la durée, la fréquence et l'amplitude des cycles de prix. Puis nous menons des tests sur la durée des cycles afin de comparer la régularité des fluctuations cycliques contre l'hypothèse alternative d'une marche au hasard. Les résultats apportent la confirmation de l'existence de cycles pour un certain nombre de prix de produits agricoles. [eng] Medium term agricultural price cycles . Agricultural commody prices have long been recognized as displaying cyclical behavior. The purpose of this study is to provide a new analysis of the medium term cyclical behavior of different agricultural commodity prices through the use of recently developed business cycle methodologies. We identify the cycles, which needs to detrend the series before applying a method closed but not identical to the NBER procedure to determine the timing, frequency and amplitude of price cycles. Then we perform tests of cyclical duration in order to compare the regularity of fluctuations in the cycles against the alternative of random walk behavior. The results provide confirmation of cyclicality for a number of agricultural price series.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter C. Labys & Dominique Badillo & Jean-Baptiste Lesourd, 1998. "Cycles à moyen terme des prix mondiaux des matières premières agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 243(1), pages 16-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1998_num_243_1_4988
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1998.4988
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1998.4988
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    References listed on IDEAS

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