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Les modèles de simulation technico-economiques comme méthode d'analyse des différentes politiques agricoles

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  • Henri-Bertrand Lefer
  • Hana Blaskovic

Abstract

[eng] Facing new policy resulting from CAP reform, common management analysises, based on a complete entreprise development pattern rigidity, are mainly useless. Traditional economical tools are exposed to some limits. So, we purpose here, a methodology focusing onto linear programming associated to the plant growth simulation program Epic (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator). Aim is to simulate productor behaviour : technical and economical adaptability facing various agricultural policy orientations. A first simulation has been drawn in cereal production farm in Beauce. Our concerns are to compare Mac Sharry reform effects with latest CAP system. [fre] Face aux réorientations complètes engendrées par la réforme de la PAC, les analyses de gestion usuelles, qui se basent sur une totale rigidité du modèle de développement de l'entreprise, sont pour la plupart inadaptées. Les outils économétriques traditionnels présentant un certain nombre de limites, nous proposons ici une méthodologie axée sur la construction d'une maquette économique de programmation linéaire associée à un simulateur agronomique -Epic- pour modéliser le comportement du producteur et évaluer son potentiel d'adaptation technique et économique face à divers scénarios de politiques agricoles. Une première application à une exploitation céréalière de la Beauce, illustre l'intérêt d'une telle démarche en comparant les effets de la réforme Mac Sharry à ceux de l'ancienne Pac.

Suggested Citation

  • Henri-Bertrand Lefer & Hana Blaskovic, 1994. "Les modèles de simulation technico-economiques comme méthode d'analyse des différentes politiques agricoles," Économie rurale, Programme National Persée, vol. 224(1), pages 45-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:recoru:ecoru_0013-0559_1994_num_224_1_4692
    DOI: 10.3406/ecoru.1994.4692
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecoru.1994.4692
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristiaan Kerstens & Jean-Philippe Boussemart & Stéphane Blancard, 2003. "L’influence des contraintes de financement de court terme sur le profit des exploitations agricoles. Une approche non paramétrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 71-81.

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