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Chômage : les chances d'en sortir

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  • Raphaël Tresmontant

Abstract

[fre] Paradoxalement, malgré la reprise de l'emploi et l'ampleur des aides à l'embauche, un chômeur n'avait pas plus de chances de retrouver un emploi en 1989 que trois ou cinq ans auparavant. C'est en particulier le cas des deux catégories de chômeurs dont les effectifs augmentent le plus rapidement et qui, sans être exclus du marché du travail, ont la probabilité la plus faible de trouver un emploi : les chômeurs de longue durée et les chômeurs "passifs" (ceux qui ne cherchent pas d'emploi). . Si elle est peu sensible à une conjoncture favorable, l'évolution des chances de réinsertion professionnelle dépend dans une certaine mesure des caractéristiques du chômeur : ainsi, les chômeuses d'âge avancé et sans diplôme cumulent les handicaps et, plus généralement, les caractéristiques socio-démographiques du chômeur (âge, sexe, qualification, etc.) expliquent, en partie, la hiérarchie des chances de retrouver un emploi. Mais ces caractéristiques sont trop proches de celles des salariés nouvellement embauchés et ont trop peu varié au cours des années quatre-vingt pour rendre compte complètement de la croissance spectaculaire du nombre des chômeurs "passifs" et de longue durée. [eng] Unemployment: the Chances of Pulling Out of it - In spite of the recovery of employment and the wide scope of help offered to find a new job, paradoxically unemployed workers did not have a greater chance of finding work in 1989 than they did three or four years before. This is especially true for the two fastest-growing categories of unemployed workers which, without being excluded from the labor market, have the smallest chances of finding employment: long-term unemployed people and "passive" ones (these who do not look for a job). . The trend in the chances of finding a new job is not highly sensitive to a favorable economic climate and depends to some extent on the characteristics of the unemployed individual: thus, unemployed older women who do not have diplomas accumulate handicaps and, more generally, the socio-demographic characteristics of the unemployed worker (age, sex, qualifications, etc) partially explain the hierarchy in the chances of finding a new job. But these characteristics are too close to those of newly-hired wage- earners and varied too little during the eighties to account completely for the dramatic growth in the number of long- term and passive unemployed people. [spa] Desempleo: las posibilidades para poder reintegrarse a la actividad laboral - A pesar de la reactivación del empleo y de la importancia de las subvenciones destinadas a la contratación, una persona desempleada no tiene, paradójicamente, muchas más posibilidades para volver a encontrar un trabajo en 1989 que hace tres o cinco años. Este es el caso, en particular, de dos categorias de desocupados, cuyo incremento es el más importante y que, sin estar excluidas del mercado laboral cuentan con las más escasas probabilidades de volver a encontrar un empleo. Se trata de los parados de larga duración y de los desempleados "pasivos" - aquellos que no buscan trabajo. . La evolución de las posibilidades de reinserción profesional, aunque sea poco sensible a una coyuntura favorable, depende encierta medida de las características del desempleado. De este modo, las mujeres desocupadas, de edad avanzada y sin diplomas acumulan las dificultades y, con mayor precision, las características sociodemográficas del desempleado (edad, sexo, calificación, etc.). Esta categoría explica, en parte, la jerarquía que se observa dentro de la gama de posibilidades existentes para volver a encontrar un empleo. Pero esas características se asemejan mucho a las de los asalariados recientemente contratados y variaron muy poco en el transcurso de los anos ochenta para dar cuenta por completo del crecimiento espectacular del número de los desempleados "pasivos" y de los de larga duración.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaël Tresmontant, 1991. "Chômage : les chances d'en sortir," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 241(1), pages 41-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_1991_num_241_1_5552
    DOI: 10.3406/estat.1991.5552
    Note: DOI:10.3406/estat.1991.5552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dominique Rouault-Galdo, 1991. "Sortir du chômage : un parcours à handicaps," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 249(1), pages 53-65.

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