IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/ecoldc/ecop_148_0041.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Les chocs monétaires et la persistance du taux de chômage

Author

Listed:
  • Moïse Sidiropoulos
  • Jamel Trabelsi

Abstract

This paper sets out to find a shock propagation mechanism that could explain persistent unemployment rates in Germany. Our work is based on an ?insider outsider? theoretical model, which constructs the dynamics that generate the unemployment rate and highlights the different economic shocks. We are especially interested in studying the effect of internal monetary shocks (domestic monetary policy shock) and external monetary shocks (shock due to an increase in the American interest rate) using the ARCH-M model. Our empirical findings show the extent of the effect of external shocks on the unemployment rate?s unconditional variance, which directly affects the unemployment rate in the mean equation. The crossed shock propagation mechanism, formalised by the ARCH-M model, explains the persistence of the unemployment rate by the persistence of volatility shocks, which are generated by external and internal shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Moïse Sidiropoulos & Jamel Trabelsi, 2001. "Les chocs monétaires et la persistance du taux de chômage," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 148(2), pages 41-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_148_0041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=ECOP_148_0041
    Download Restriction: free
    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision-1-2001-2-page-41.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Kiwhan & Schmidt, Peter, 1993. "Unit root tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 287-300, October.
    2. Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "Hysteresis in History: Was There Ever a Phillips Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 220-225, May.
    3. Jean-Philippe Cotis & Ferhat Mihoubi, 1990. "L'hystérésis du taux de chômage en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 92(1), pages 127-144.
    4. Gray, Jo Anna, 1976. "Wage indexation: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 221-235, April.
    5. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    6. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, September.
    7. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. Alogoskoufis, George & Manning, Alan, 1988. "Wage setting and unemployment persistence in Europe, Japan and the USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 698-706, March.
    10. Jamel Trabelsi, 1997. "Les tests de racine unitaire et les modèles Arch : application au taux de chômage," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 131(5), pages 177-190.
    11. Harvey, Andrew & Snyder, Ralph D., 1990. "Structural time series models in inventory control," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 187-198, July.
    12. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    13. Hargreaves Heap, S P, 1980. "Choosing the Wrong 'Natural' Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Decelerating Employment and Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(359), pages 611-620, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alain Maurin & Roland Craigwell & Sébastien Mathouraparsad, 2011. "Modeling time series of unemployment rates in the Caribbean basin," EcoMod2011 3296, EcoMod.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    2. Ömer AKKUŞ & Seher Gülşah TOPUZ, 2019. "Validity of Unemployment Hysteresis: The Most Fragile Five Developing Countries," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(39).
    3. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis," FMM Working Paper 45-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Franz, Wolfgang, 1990. "Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 109-125.
    5. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2004. "Testing for hysteresis in unemployment in OECD countries. New evidence using stationarity panel tests with breaks†," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces 2004/40, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2008. "Modelling the US, UK and Japanese unemployment rates: Fractional integration and structural breaks," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 4998-5013, July.
    8. Omoshoro-Jones, Oyeyinka Sunday, 2021. "Asymmetry in Okun’s Law Revisited: New evidence on cyclical unemployment–cyclical output trade-off in the Free State Province using NARDL model," MPRA Paper 107126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Naveen Srinivasan & Pratik Mitra, 2016. "Interwar Unemployment in the UK and the US: Old and New Evidence," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 5(1), pages 96-112, June.
    10. Firouz Fallahi & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2011. "Persistence of Unemployment in the Canadian Provinces," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 438-458, October.
    11. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.
    12. Saeid Eisazadeh & Mahbobeh Tabarsi, 2013. "Does Unemployment Hysteresis Exist in Economy of Iran?," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(8), pages 1717-1724, August.
    13. Kurmas Akdogan, 2018. "Mean-reversion and structural change in European food prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(4), pages 163-173.
    14. Ewing, Bradley T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2001. "Unit roots and structural breaks in North American unemployment rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 273-282, November.
    15. Cheng, Shu-Ching & Wu, Tsung-pao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Flexible Fourier unit root test of unemployment for PIIGS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 142-148.
    16. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    17. Aviral Tiwari, 2014. "Unemployment hysteresis in Australia: evidence using nonlinear and stationarity tests with breaks," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 681-695, March.
    18. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
    19. Dutt, Amitava K. & Ros, Jaime, 2007. "Aggregate demand shocks and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-99, March.
    20. Diego Romero‐Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit Root Tests, Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 698-716, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:ecoldc:ecop_148_0041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision.htm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.