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Le policy-mix de la zone euro. Une évaluation de l'impact des chocs monétaires et budgétaires

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  • Sophie Garcia
  • Adrien Verdelhan

Abstract

[eng] The Euro Zone’s Policy Mix – an Evaluation of the Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks . by Sophie Garcia and Adrien Verdelhan . This paper presents a simultaneous study of fiscal and monetary shocks in the euro zone using a structural VAR model covering line of business, prices, an average real short-term interest rate and an average budget balance. The time taken for fiscal and monetary changes to affectGDPappears to be similar. The effect of a 100-basis-point cut in the three-month real interest rate is similar to the short-run effect of a 0.6-point GDP increase in the average government deficit. A structural budget deficit reflecting past discretionary fiscal measures is calculated and a policy mix indicator is constructed to better assess the euro zone’s overall economic policy trend. . [fre] Cet article propose l'étude simultanée des chocs budgétaires et monétaires, à l'échelle de la zone euro, à l'aide d''un modèle VAR structurel regroupant l'activité, les prix, un taux d'intérêt réel de court terme et un solde budgétaire moyens. Les délais de transmission des impulsions budgétaires et monétaires sur le PIB apparaissent semblables. Une baisse de 100 points de base du choc de taux d''intérêt réel à 3 mois a un effet comparable à l'effet à court terme d'une augmentation de 0,6 point de . PIB du choc de déficit public moyen. Le calcul d’un déficit budgétaire structurel, reflétant les mesures budgétaires discrétionnaires passées, et la construction d'un indicateur du policy-mix permettent de mieux apprécier l'orientation globale des politiques économiques de la zone euro.

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  • Sophie Garcia & Adrien Verdelhan, 2001. "Le policy-mix de la zone euro. Une évaluation de l'impact des chocs monétaires et budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 23-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2001_num_148_2_6275
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2001.6275
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2001.6275
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Héricourt, 2004. "And if one size fit all after all? A counterfactual examination of the ECB monetary policy under Duisenberg presidency," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla04004a, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Nov 2005.
    2. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.
    3. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS

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