IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prs/ecoprv/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur

Author

Listed:
  • Régis Blazy

Abstract

[fre] Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur . Régis Blazy . Notre étude relie entre eux les principaux facteurs explicatifs du processus de défaillance involontaire généralement avancés par la littérature théorique, en privilégiant le rôle joué par les erreurs d'anticipation de la demande commises par les entreprises. L'analyse théorique présentée permet de mettre en évidence un mécanisme de convergence plus ou moins stable de ces anticipations. L'impact des erreurs d' anticipation de la demande sur la probabilité de défaillance des entreprises est confirmé économétriquement en utilisant les enquêtes d'activité menées par l'Insee sur le secteur industriel entre 1977 et 1994. D'autres variables, décrivant le contexte démographique et financier des entreprises sur cette période sont également analysées. [eng] Imitation, Demand Expectation Errors and the Risk of Bankruptcy Among Industrial Firms in France: An . Econometric Error Correction Model . Régis Blazy . Our study links up the main explanatory factors generally put forward by theoretical literature as being behind the involuntary bankruptcy process by focusing on the role played by the demand expectation errors made by firms. The theoretical analysis presented posits a more or less stable convergence mechanism for these expectations. The effect of demand expectation errors on the probability of bankruptcy is econometrically confirmed using INSEE's business surveys of the industrial sector from 1977 to 1994. Other variables describing the legal, demographic and financial circumstances of firms during this period are also analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Régis Blazy, 1996. "Mimétisme, erreurs d'anticipation de la demande et risque de défaillance des entreprises industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique à correction d'erreur," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 125(4), pages 1-18.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3406/ecop.1996.5803
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.persee.fr/doc/ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3406/ecop.1996.5803?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    2. de Leeuw, Frank & McKelvey, Michael J, 1984. "Price Expectations of Business Firms: Bias in the Short and Long Run," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(1), pages 99-110, March.
    3. Laurence Bloch & Jérôme Bourdieu & Béatrice Colin-Sédillot & Guy Longueville, 1995. "Du défaut de paiement au dépôt de bilan : les banquiers face aux PME en difficulté," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 32(1), pages 229-256.
    4. Jean-Marie Callies, 1988. "Une entreprise sur deux disparaît avant cinq ans," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 215(1), pages 45-50.
    5. Régis Blazy & Patricia Charlety & Jérôme Combier, 1993. "Les défaillances d'entreprises : des difficultés visibles plusieurs années à l'avance," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 268(1), pages 101-111.
    6. Luc Marco & Michel Rainelli, 1986. "« Les disparitions de firmes industrielles en France : un modèle économétrique »," Revue d'Économie Industrielle, Programme National Persée, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    7. Hudson, John & Cuthbertson, Keith, 1993. "The Determinants of Bankruptcies in the U.K.: 1971-1988," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 65-81, March.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Castanias, Richard, 1983. "Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1617-1635, December.
    10. Simmons, Peter, 1989. "Bad Luck and Fixed Costs in Personal Bankruptcies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 92-107, March.
    11. Mireille Bardos, 1990. "Le crédit plus cher pour les petites entreprises," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 236(1), pages 51-64.
    12. Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1986. "Inflation, Bankruptcy, Default Premia and the Stock Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 96(381), pages 120-138, March.
    13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    14. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    15. repec:nsr:niesrd:54 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. White, Michelle J, 1989. "The Corporate Bankruptcy Decision," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 129-151, Spring.
    17. Murray Z. Frank, 1988. "An Intertemporal Model of Industrial Exit," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 103(2), pages 333-344.
    18. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    19. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Paul Francis O'Brien & Frank Browne, 1992. "A "Credit Crunch"?: The Recent Slowdown in Bank Lending and Its Implications for Monetary Policy," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 107, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jocelyn Martel, 1996. "Solutions au stress financier : Un survol de la littérature," CIRANO Working Papers 96s-03, CIRANO.
    2. Martel, Jocelyn, 1996. "Solutions au stress financier," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 72(1), pages 51-78, mars.
    3. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Asset prices, Credit and Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 18/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    4. Xin Qu & Majella Percy & Fang Hu & Jenny Stewart, 2022. "Can CEO equity‐based compensation limit investment‐related agency problems?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2579-2614, June.
    5. Diana Hechavarría & Charles Matthews & Paul Reynolds, 2016. "Does start-up financing influence start-up speed? Evidence from the panel study of entrepreneurial dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 137-167, January.
    6. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    7. John S. Strong & John R. Meyer, 1990. "Sustaining Investment, Discretionary Investment, and Valuation: A Residual Funds Study of the Paper Industry," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 127-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Pensa, Pascal & Wöhle, Claudia B., 2004. "Kapitalstrukturtheorie in Theorie und Praxis: Ergebnisse einer Fragebogenuntersuchung," Working papers 2004/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    9. Ana Venâncio & João Jorge, 2022. "The role of accelerator programmes on the capital structure of start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1143-1167, October.
    10. Rafal M. Wojakowski & M. Shahid Ebrahim & Aziz Jaafar & Murizah Osman Salleh, 2019. "Can Loan Valuation Adjustment (LVA) approach immunize collateralized debt from defaults?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 141-158, May.
    11. Silvia Magri, 2014. "Does issuing equity help R&D activity? Evidence from unlisted Italian high-tech manufacturing firms," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 825-854, November.
    12. Valérie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "Financing technology-based small firms in Europe: what do we know?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 179-205, July.
    13. Cieply Sylvie, 2001. "The Radical Change of French Firms’ Financial Characteristics. Macroeconomic Consequences and Lessons for Political Economics / Die französische Finanzrevolution. Die Folgen für die Finanzstruktur der," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(5-6), pages 556-576, October.
    14. Monda, Barbara & Giorgino, Marco & Modolin, Ileana, 2013. "Rationales for Corporate Risk Management - A Critical Literature Review," MPRA Paper 45420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2020. "How firms finance innovation. Further empirics from European SMEs," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 689-714, November.
    16. Poitevin, Michel, 1989. "Information et marchés financiers : une revue de littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 65(4), pages 555-589, décembre.
    17. Sanjiva Prasad & Christopher J. Green & Victor Murinde, 2005. "Company Financial Structure: A Survey and Implications for Developing Economies," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Colin Kirkpatrick & Victor Murinde (ed.), Finance and Development, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    19. Konstantinos Tzioumis & Leora F. Klapper, 2012. "Taxation and Capital Structure: Evidence from a Transition Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 165-190, June.
    20. Lewe, Stefan, 2003. "Wachstumseffiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 20042, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_125_4_5803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Equipe PERSEE (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.