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Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective

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  • Stéphane Jacobzone

Abstract

[eng] Putting the Links between Minimum Income Support and Unemployment into Perspective . by Stéphane Jacobzone . The introduction of minimum income support in 1989 was accompanied by an increase in unemployment among unskilled The subsequent introduction of the single digressive unemployment benefit in 1992 altered the ways in which benefits were managed. The fact that the growth in the number of minimum income support beneficiaries has been on a incline since its introduction has raised a certain number of questions. This study proposes some elements for estimating the structural dynamics of the number of beneficiaries. It presents a picture of their profile and the development of profile. Modeling on time series then shows that unemployment benefit rejections, after a five-month lag and in 20% of the can be used to estimate how many people enter the system. The modeling of exits using a diffusion process enables a five- six-month forecasting model to be constructed. This work results in a forward-looking study on the dynamics of the mechanisms. [fre] Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective par Stéphane Jacobzone . La mise en place du RMI en 1989 a été concomitante avec une progression du chômage de la main d' œuvre non qualifiée. le même temps, la mise en place de l'Allocation unique dégressive en 1992 a modifié les conditions de gestion de chômage. Le nombre d' allocataires RMI a connu une progression rapide et non démentie jusqu' à présent suscitant un certain d'interrogations. Cette étude apporte des éléments d'estimation économétrique sur la dynamique structurelle du d'allocataires. Elle fournit un aperçu de leur profil et de son évolution. Ensuite, des modélisations sur séries temporelles que les rejets d'indemnisation du chômage, décalés de 5 mois et dans une proportion de 20 %, permettent d'estimer les entrées le dispositif. En modélisant les sorties par un processus de diffusion, ceci permet de construire une maquette de prévision à de 5 à 6 mois. Tout ceci conduit à une réflexion prospective sur la dynamique des dispositifs de transfert.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Jacobzone, 1996. "Les liens entre RMI et chômage, une mise en perspective," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 122(1), pages 95-113.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1996_num_122_1_5780
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1996.5780
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1996.5780
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    1. Lindbeck, Assar, 1995. "Hazardous Welfare-State Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 9-15, May.
    2. Snower, Dennis J, 1993. "The Future of the Welfare State," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(418), pages 700-717, May.
    3. Gramlich, Edward M, 1989. "Economists' View of the Welfare System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 191-196, May.
    4. Jean-Claude Ray, 1989. "Quelques réflexions à propos de la mesure de l'impact des transferts sociaux sur les comportements individuels," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 87(1), pages 85-92.
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    1. Terracol, Antoine, 2009. "Guaranteed minimum income and unemployment duration in France," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 171-182, April.

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