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Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage

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  • Liliane Bonnal
  • Denis Fougère

Abstract

[eng] Individual determinants of unemployment durations, . by Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère.. . From a statistical standpoint, this paper analyzes the effects of individual characteristics on average unemployment durations and the types of duration with competing risks. The results show that time-profiles of specific hazard rates or exit rates from unemployment depend on the destination state [the two options basically being: finding a job, and being removed from the ANPE (National Agency for Employment) lists for not checking in]. Furthermore, the individual factors determining these rates differ from one destination state to another. Variables which influence the instantaneous probability to be hired are demographic (sex, age, citizenship, marital status) and socio-economic (education, job qualifications, socio-professional categories) individual characteristics. [fre] Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage, . par Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère.. . Cet article analyse, d'un point de vue statistique, les effets des caractéristiques individuelles sur les durées moyennes et les types de durée à risques concurrents. Les résultats font ressortir que les évolutions, avec l'ancienneté en chômage, des probabilités instantanées de sortie dépendent des issues considérées (principalement : reprise d'un emploi et radiation de l'Anpe pour absence de pointage). En outre, les caractéristiques individuelles agissant sur ces probabilités diffèrent selon l'issue. Les variables ayant un effet sur la probabilité instantanée sont des caractéristiques individuelles démographiques (sexe, âge, nationalité, situation familiale) et socio-économiques (formation initiale, qualification, Csp). [ger] Die individuellen Determinanten der Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, . von Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère.. . Dieser Artikel enthält eine statistische Analyse der Auswirkungen der individuellen Charakteristiken auf die durchschnittliche Dauer und die Art der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit bei Zusammenwirken mehrerer Risiken. Aus den Ergebnissen geht hervor, daß mit der Zunahme der Dauer der Arbeitslosigkeit die Entwicklungen der kurzfristigen Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Beendigung der Arbeitslosigkeit vom jeweiligen Ausgang abhängig sind (insbesondere Wiederaufnahme einer Beschäftigung und Löschen aus der Arbeitsamtdatei infolge nicht regelmäßigen Erscheinens). Daneben sind die individuellen Charakteristiken, die sich auf diese Wahrscheinlichkeiten auswirken, je nach Ausgang verschieden. Die Variablen, die die kurzfristige Wahrscheinlichkeit beeinflussen, betreffen zum einen die individuellen demographischen Charakteristiken (Geschlecht, Alter, Staatsangehörigkeit, Familienstand) und zum anderen die individuellen sozioökonomischen Charakteristiken (anfängliche Ausbildung, Qualifizierung, Stellung im Erwerbsleben). [spa] Los determinantes individuates de la duración del desempleo, . Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère.. . En el presente artículo se analiza, desde un punto de vista estadístico, los efectos de las características individuales sobre las duraciones médias y los tipos de duración de riesgos concurrentes. Los resultados muestran que la evolución, según la duración del desempleo, de las probabilidades instantáneas de terminar con esta situación dependen de las salidas consideradas (principalmente : reintegración al trabajo y baja obligatoria, impuesta por la oficina de trabajo por ausencia de control). Además, las características individuales que intervienen en estas probabilidades difieren según las salidas. Las variables que modifican la probabilidad instantánea son las características individuales demográficas (sexo, edad, nacionalidad, situación familar) y socio-económicas (formación inicial, cualificación, Csp).

Suggested Citation

  • Liliane Bonnal & Denis Fougère, 1990. "Les déterminants individuels de la durée du chômage," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 96(5), pages 45-82.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1990_num_96_5_5196
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1990.5196
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1990.5196
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew Chesher & Tony Lancaster, 1983. "The Estimation of Models of Labour Market Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 50(4), pages 609-624.
    2. Fourgeaud C & Gourieroux Christian & Pradel J, 1987. "Heterogeneity and hazard dominance in duration data models," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8736, CEPREMAP.
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    5. Lynch, Lisa M., 1985. "State dependency in youth unemployment : A lost generation?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 71-84, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Margolis, 1999. "Worker Displacement in France," Post-Print halshs-00370401, HAL.
    2. Denis Fougère & Francis Kramarz, 1997. "Le marché du travail en France : quelques pistes d'analyse," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 301(1), pages 51-60.
    3. Stéfan Lollivier, 1994. "L'évolution du marché du travail dans les années quatre-vingt," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 45(3), pages 429-441.
    4. Jean-Pierre Florens & Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka & Michel Mouchart, 1994. "La modélisation économétrique des transitions individuelles sur le marché du travail," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 116(5), pages 181-217.
    5. Pierre Granier & Xavier Joutard, 1999. "L'activité réduite favorise-t-elle la sortie du chômage ?," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 321(1), pages 133-148.
    6. Chantal Cases & Stefan Lollivier, 1994. "Estimation d'un modèle de sortie de chômage à destinations multiples," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 177-187.
    7. Jean-Paul Zoyem, 2001. "Contrats d'insertion et sortie du RMI [Évaluation des effets d’une politique sociale]," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 346(1), pages 75-102.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/4741 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Catherine Cazals, 1992. "Évolution des individus âgés sur le marché du travail aux États-Unis. Un modèle à risques concurrents," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(3), pages 487-508.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4741 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jacques Freyssinet & Olivier Passet & Jean-Paul Fitoussi, 2000. "Réduction du chômage : les réussites en Europe," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972689, HAL.
    12. Olivia Ekert-Jaffé & Anne Solaz, 2002. "Couple Formation in France: The Changing Importance of Labor Market Early Career Path," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 223-239, October.
    13. Chantal Cases, 1994. "Durées de chômage et comportements d'offre de travail : une revue de la littérature," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 113(2), pages 155-170.
    14. A. Prieto, 2000. "L'introduction d'une allocation chômage dégressive en France en 1992. Quel impact sur la reprise de l'emploi ? Etude économétrique menée à partir du Fichier National des Allocataires de l'UNEDIC sur l," THEMA Working Papers 2000-07, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    15. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/4741 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michael Grimm & Noël Bonneuil, 2001. "Labour Market Participation of French Women over the Life Cycle, 1935–1990," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 235-260, September.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4741 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Chantal Cases, 1996. "Assurance-chômage et offre de travail," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 291(1), pages 139-150.
    19. Lauer, Charlotte, 2003. "Education and Unemployment: A French-German Comparison," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Sabine Chaupain, 1996. "L'influence de la clause de limite sur la durée effective de perception de l'allocation de parent isolé (API)," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 122(1), pages 33-46.

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