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Une difficulté d'interprétation de l'approche Logit : l'exemple de l'économie des transports

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  • Pascal Bouyaux

Abstract

[fre] Une difficulté d'interprétation de l'approche Logit : l'exemple de l'économie des transports, . par Pascal Bouyaux.. . Cet article présente un tour d'horizon des fondements et interprétations traditionnels de l'approche Logit appliquée à la modélisation de la demande de transport urbain. Utilisant le concept de rationalité stochastique introduit par Falmagne (1978), il formalise le cadre théorique dans lequel McFadden (1974) a dérivé le modèle Logit de la maximisation d'une fonction d'utilité aléatoire. Ce cadre, correspondant exclusivement à la modélisation de l'hétérogénéité des préférences d'une population d'individus, reste trop étroit dans la mesure où il ne tient pas compte du caractère non répétitif du processus de choix des voyageurs. Aussi une formalisation alternative, développée à l'origine par Beggs, Cardell et Hausman (1981), est-elle présentée : le modèle Logit ordonné. Au-delà de l'hétérogénéité des préférences, cette nouvelle approche permet de rendre à la modélisation de la demande de transport urbain tout son caractère « behavionste ». [spa] Una dificultad de interpretación del enfoque Logit : el ejemplo de la economía de los transportes, . por Pascal Bouyaux.. . Este artículo presenta un panorama de los fundamentos e interpretaciones tradicionales del enfoque Logit aplicado a la modelización de la demanda de transporte urbano. Utilizando el concepto de racionalidad estocástica introducido por Falmagne (1978), formaliza el marco teórico del cual McFadden (1 974) derivó el modelo Logit de la maximización de una función de utilidad aleatoria. Este marco, que corresponde exclusivamente a la modelización de la heterogeneidad de las preferencias de una población de individuos, resulta demasiado estrecho en la medida en que no considera el carácter no repetitivo del proceso de elección de los viajeros. Así, se presentó una formalización alternativa, desarrollada en un principio por Beggs, Cardell y Hausman (1981) : el modelo Logit ordenado. Más allá de la heterogeneidad de las preferencias, este nuevo enfoque permite devolver a la modelización de la demanda de transporte urbano todo su carácter « behaviorista ». [eng] Problems arising in the Logit approach : an example from the transportation economy, . by Pascal Bouyaux.. . This article presents a survey of the traditional foundations and interpretations of a Logit approach, applied to the urban travel demand modelling. Using the notion of stochastic rationality introduced by Falmagne (1978), it formalises the theoretical framework from which McFadden (1974) derived the Logit model with the maximisation of a random utility function. This framework, corresponding solely to the modelling of preferences heterogeneousness of a population, is too limited because it doesn't take into account the non-repeated character of the travellers choice's process. Therefore, an alternative model is proposed, originally elaborated by Beggs, Cardell and Hausman (1981) : the ordered Logit model. Beyond the preferences' heterogeneousness, this new approach allows to give back to the urban travel demand modelling all his behavioral character. [ger] Die Problematik der Aussagekraft des Logit-Ansatzes : das Beispiel der Verkehrswirtschaft, . von Pascal Bouyaux.. . Dieser Artikel bietet einen Uberblick über die traditionellen Grundlagen und Aussagen des auf die Modellierung des Bedarfs an städtischen Verkehrsmittein angewandten Logit-Modells. Auf der Basis des von Falmagne (1976) eingeführten Konzepts der stochastischen Rationalität wird ein theoretischer Rahmen formalisiert, anhand dessen McFadden (1974) das Logit-Modell bezüglich der Maximierung einer zufallsbedingten Nutzenfunktion abgeleitet hat. Da dieser Rahmen ausschliesslich auf die Modellierung der heterogen gearteten Präferenzen einer Masse von Individuen abgestimmt ist, bleibt er insofern zu eng, als er den nichtrepetitiven Charakter der die Verkehrsmittelbenutzung betreffenden Entscheidungsprozesse nicht-berücksichtigt. Aus diesem Grund wird eine zuerst von Beggs, Cardell und Hausman (1 981) entwickelte Altemativformalisierung vorgestellt : das geordnete Logit-Modell. Ausser der Berücksichtigung der heterogenen Präferenzen erlaubt dieser neue Ansatz, das « behavioristische » Gepräge der Modellierung des Bedarfs an städtischen Verkehrsmittein hervorzuheben.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Bouyaux, 1989. "Une difficulté d'interprétation de l'approche Logit : l'exemple de l'économie des transports," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 91(5), pages 119-131.
  • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1989_num_91_5_5148
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.1989.5148
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.1989.5148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel McFadden, 1986. "The Choice Theory Approach to Market Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 5(4), pages 275-297.
    2. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November.
    3. Winston, Clifford, 1985. "Conceptual Development in the Economics of Transportation: An Interpretive Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 57-94, March.
    4. Beggs, S. & Cardell, S. & Hausman, J., 1981. "Assessing the potential demand for electric cars," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-19, September.
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    1. Samir Ghazouani & Mohamed Goaïed, 1993. "Analyse micro-économétrique de la demande de transport urbain pour la ville de Tunis," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 47-62.

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