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Effects of Trade Liberalization on Exports, Imports and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

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  • Muhammad Zakaria

Abstract

Using time series data, the paper empirically analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on exports, imports and trade balance in Pakistan for the period 1981/82 to 2007/08. It concludes that trade liberalization stimulates both exports and imports with the effect being greater on latter than on former thereby worsening the trade balance. Other variables, that is, real exchange rate, domestic and foreign incomes, terms of trade and foreign exchange market distortions affect exports, imports and trade balance in the theoretically expected directions. Inclusion of interaction terms indicate that liberalization stimulates both price and income elasticities of exports, imports and trade balance. These results have important policy implications for degree of trade liberalization in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Zakaria, 2014. "Effects of Trade Liberalization on Exports, Imports and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(1), pages 121-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2014:y:2014:i:1:id:476:p:121-139
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.476
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    Cited by:

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    2. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:663:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Aid for Trade and Recipient Countries’ Export Structure: Does Trade Policy Liberalisation Matter?," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(1), pages 56-85, June.
    4. Essotanam Mamba & Afi Balaki, 2022. "Effects of trade policies on external trade performances of ECOWAS countries (1996–2017)†," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 535-566, July.
    5. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2017. "An Empirical Investigation on the Role of exports, imports and its Determinants in Foreign Trade of Pakistan," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 8(6), pages 39-58.
    6. Ekaterina Y. ARAPOVA, 2017. "Ex-Post Analysis Of The Influence Of Tariff Liberalisation On Asean Exports," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 135-154.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Atif Ali Jaffri & Faisal Abbas & Azad Haider, 2017. "Does Trade Liberalization Improve Trade Balance in Pakistan?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 18(2), pages 158-183, September.
    8. Nzeh Innocent Chile & Okoli Uju Victoria & Okolie David Ogomegbunam & Okolie Jonathan Ibekwe, 2024. "Marginal propensity to import and terms of trade: Panel granger causality evidence from the East African Community (EAC)," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 251-269.
    9. Serfraz, Ayesha, 2017. "What is the effect of foreign direct investment inflows on economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis in the light of religious sectarianism as catalyst for terrorism," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 59, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    10. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm & Iyer, Harish, 2021. "Effect of Aid for Trade and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows on the Utilization of Unilateral Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD countries," EconStor Preprints 238211, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    11. Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Jolita VVEINHARDT & Dalia STREIMIKIENE, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Export, Import, and Inflation: A Case of Pakistan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 117-130, September.
    12. Adel Shakeeb MOHSEN, 2020. "Trade Liberalization and International Trade: A Case Study of China," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 4(1), pages 1-14.
    13. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2016. "Analyzing the role of Imports in Economic Growth of Pakistan; Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(9), pages 19-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exports; trade liberalization; imports; trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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