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Quantifying responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge: A study of the London western extension

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  • Laila Ait Bihi Ouali
  • Davis Musuuga
  • Daniel J Graham

Abstract

This paper quantifies behavioural responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge, with a successive focus on (i) an extension and (ii) a reduction in the size of the charging zone. We exploit the unanticipated nature of both the implementation and removal of London’s Western Expansion Zone (WEZ) as quasi-natural experiments to test whether individual responses to policies are asymmetric. We use the UK Department of Transport Annual Average Daily Flow (AADF) data, which records traffic flows for seven transport modes (including cars, buses, bicycles, heavy and light goods vehicles). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the introduction of the WEZ led to a 4.9% decline in road traffic flows in the new congestion charge area. These results are robust to different model specifications. HGVs traffic did not significantly change post-WEZ, which indicates that their road demand is price inelastic. The removal of the WEZ led to no significant variations in traffic. This result indicates asymmetry in behaviour with persistent changes in post-intervention traffic demand levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Laila Ait Bihi Ouali & Davis Musuuga & Daniel J Graham, 2021. "Quantifying responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge: A study of the London western extension," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0253881
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253881
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Phang, Sock-Yong & Toh, Rex S., 1997. "From manual to electronic road congestion pricing: The Singapore experience and experiment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 97-106, June.
    2. Glaister, Stephen & Graham, Daniel J., 2005. "An evaluation of national road user charging in England," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 632-650.
    3. Gilles Duranton & Matthew A. Turner, 2011. "The Fundamental Law of Road Congestion: Evidence from US Cities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2616-2652, October.
    4. Christopher R. Knittel & Douglas L. Miller & Nicholas J. Sanders, 2016. "Caution, Drivers! Children Present: Traffic, Pollution, and Infant Health," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(2), pages 350-366, May.
    5. Daniel J. Graham & Emma J. McCoy & David A. Stephens, 2014. "Quantifying Causal Effects of Road Network Capacity Expansions on Traffic Volume and Density via a Mixed Model Propensity Score Estimator," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(508), pages 1440-1449, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yingheng & Li, Haojie & Ren, Gang, 2022. "Quantifying the social impacts of the London Night Tube with a double/debiased machine learning based difference-in-differences approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 288-303.

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