IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v160y2025icp181-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of congestion charging on car ownership: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Morton, Craig
  • Ali, Yasir

Abstract

•This study examines the impact of congestion charging on private car ownership.•A quasi-natural experiment design is applied through spatial difference-in-differences.•The London Congestion Charge is used as a case study.•An Average Treatment Effect on the Treated of 6.95% ownership reduction is identified.•The identified impact is useful in the design or augmentation of congestion charging policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Morton, Craig & Ali, Yasir, 2025. "The impact of congestion charging on car ownership: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 181-191.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:160:y:2025:i:c:p:181-191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.10.039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X24003317
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.10.039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guo, Zhan, 2013. "Does residential parking supply affect household car ownership? The case of New York City," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 18-28.
    2. Aaron Kolleck, 2021. "Does Car-Sharing Reduce Car Ownership? Empirical Evidence from Germany," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Albalate, Daniel & Gragera, Albert, 2020. "The impact of curbside parking regulations on car ownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    4. Jan Mutl & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2011. "The Hausman test in a Cliff and Ord panel model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages 48-76, February.
    5. Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2015. "Difference-in-differences techniques for spatial data: Local autocorrelation and spatial interaction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 123-126.
    6. Agachai Sumalee & Simon Shepherd & Anthony May, 2009. "Road user charging design: dealing with multi-objectives and constraints," Transportation, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 167-186, March.
    7. Holmgren, Johan, 2020. "The effect of public transport quality on car ownership – A source of wider benefits?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2020. "Does improving public transport decrease car ownership? Evidence from a residential sorting model for the Copenhagen metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Groote, Jesper De & Ommeren, Jos Van & Koster, Hans R.A., 2016. "Car ownership and residential parking subsidies: Evidence from Amsterdam," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 25-37.
    10. Robert Noland & Mohammed Quddus & Washington Ochieng, 2008. "The effect of the London congestion charge on road casualties: an intervention analysis," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 73-91, January.
    11. Bardaka, Eleni & Delgado, Michael S. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2018. "Causal identification of transit-induced gentrification and spatial spillover effects: The case of the Denver light rail," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 15-31.
    12. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    13. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    14. Sabouri, Sadegh & Tian, Guang & Ewing, Reid & Park, Keunhyun & Greene, William, 2021. "The built environment and vehicle ownership modeling: Evidence from 32 diverse regions in the U.S," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    15. Hennessy, Hugh & Tol, Richard S.J., 2011. "The impact of tax reform on new car purchases in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7059-7067.
    16. Leslie Belton Chevallier & Joseph Cacciari & Anne Aguiléra, 2023. "Demotorization and Space: The Influence of Spatial Factors on Car-Dependency Reduction in France," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(3), pages 6-13.
    17. Green, Colin P. & Heywood, John S. & Navarro Paniagua, Maria, 2020. "Did the London congestion charge reduce pollution?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Hugosson, Muriel B. & Brundell-Freij, Karin, 2012. "The Stockholm congestion charges—5 years on. Effects, acceptability and lessons learnt," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Zheng, Yunhan & Moody, Joanna & Wang, Shenhao & Zhao, Jinhua, 2021. "Measuring policy leakage of Beijing’s car ownership restriction," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 223-236.
    20. Millo, Giovanni & Piras, Gianfranco, 2012. "splm: Spatial Panel Data Models in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 47(i01).
    21. Green, Colin P. & Heywood, John S. & Navarro, María, 2016. "Traffic accidents and the London congestion charge," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 11-22.
    22. Alexa Delbosc, 2017. "Delay or forgo? A closer look at youth driver licensing trends in the United States and Australia," Transportation, Springer, vol. 44(5), pages 919-926, September.
    23. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A., 2012. "Congestion charging and car use: A review of stated preference and opinion studies and market monitoring evidence," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 47-61.
    24. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:23:y:2008:i::p:243-296 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Khandker Habib, 2014. "Household-level commuting mode choices, car allocation and car ownership level choices of two-worker households: the case of the city of Toronto," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 651-672, May.
    26. Laila Ait Bihi Ouali & Davis Musuuga & Daniel J Graham, 2021. "Quantifying responses to changes in the jurisdiction of a congestion charge: A study of the London western extension," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-14, July.
    27. Shen, Qing & Chen, Peng & Pan, Haixiao, 2016. "Factors affecting car ownership and mode choice in rail transit-supported suburbs of a large Chinese city," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 31-44.
    28. Clark, Ben & Lyons, Glenn & Chatterjee, Kiron, 2016. "Understanding the process that gives rise to household car ownership level changes," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 110-120.
    29. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    30. Potoglou, Dimitris & Kanaroglou, Pavlos S., 2008. "Modelling car ownership in urban areas: a case study of Hamilton, Canada," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 42-54.
    31. L. E. Karjalainen & M. Tiitu & J. Lyytimäki & V. Helminen & P. Tapio & A. Tuominen & T. Vasankari & J. Lehtimäki & R. Paloniemi, 2023. "Going carless in different urban fabrics: socio-demographics of household car ownership," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 107-142, February.
    32. Dargay, Joyce M., 2002. "Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 351-366, September.
    33. Roger S. Bivand & David W. S. Wong, 2018. "Comparing implementations of global and local indicators of spatial association," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(3), pages 716-748, September.
    34. Barry Ubbels & Taede Tillema & Erik Verhoef & Bert van Wee, 2008. "Effects of a Kilometre Charge on Car Use, Car Ownership and Relocation," Chapters, in: Erik Verhoef & Michiel C.J. Bliemer & Linda Steg & Bert van Wee (ed.), Pricing in Road Transport, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    35. Croissant, Yves & Millo, Giovanni, 2008. "Panel Data Econometrics in R: The plm Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i02).
    36. Kottenhoff, Karl & Brundell Freij, Karin, 2009. "The role of public transport for feasibility and acceptability of congestion charging - The case of Stockholm," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 297-305, March.
    37. Tang, Cheng Keat, 2021. "The Cost of Traffic: Evidence from the London Congestion Charge," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    38. Junghwa Kim & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker & Cecilia Bergstad & Satoshi Fujii & Tommy Gärling, 2014. "The influence of personality on acceptability of sustainable transport policies," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 855-872, July.
    39. Zheng, Yunhan & Meredith-Karam, Patrick & Stewart, Anson & Kong, Hui & Zhao, Jinhua, 2023. "Impacts of congestion pricing on ride-hailing ridership: Evidence from Chicago," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    40. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    41. Diao, Mi & Leonard, Delon & Sing, Tien Foo, 2017. "Spatial-difference-in-differences models for impact of new mass rapid transit line on private housing values," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 64-77.
    42. Gibson, Matthew & Carnovale, Maria, 2015. "The effects of road pricing on driver behavior and air pollution," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 62-73.
    43. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    44. Eriksson, Louise & Garvill, Jörgen & Nordlund, Annika M., 2008. "Acceptability of single and combined transport policy measures: The importance of environmental and policy specific beliefs," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1117-1128, October.
    45. Quddus, Mohammed A. & Bell, Michael G.H. & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Fonzone, Achille, 2007. "The impact of the congestion charge on the retail business in London: An econometric analysis," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 433-444, September.
    46. Ding, Hongliang & Sze, N.N. & Li, Haojie & Guo, Yanyong, 2021. "Affected area and residual period of London Congestion Charging scheme on road safety," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-128.
    47. De Jong, G. C., 1990. "An indirect utility model of car ownership and private car use," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 971-985, July.
    48. Matthew Gibson & Maria Carnovale, 2015. "The Effects of Road Pricing on Driver Behavior and Air Pollution," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-16, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    49. Marcos Chamon & Paolo Mauro & Yohei Okawa, 2008. "Mass car ownership in the emerging market giants [‘Petroleum taxes’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(54), pages 244-296.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kudłak, Robert & Kisiała, Wojciech & Kołsut, Bartłomiej, 2024. "Systemic transformation, political reforms and car ownership in Poland," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Andrea Baranzini & Stefano Carattini & Linda Tesauro, 2021. "Designing Effective and Acceptable Road Pricing Schemes: Evidence from the Geneva Congestion Charge," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 417-482, July.
    3. Morton, Craig & Mattioli, Giulio & Anable, Jillian, 2021. "Public acceptability towards Low Emission Zones: The role of attitudes, norms, emotions, and trust," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 256-270.
    4. Roger Bivand & Giovanni Millo & Gianfranco Piras, 2021. "A Review of Software for Spatial Econometrics in R," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-40, June.
    5. Fageda, Xavier & Flores-Fillol, Ricardo & Theilen, Bernd, 2022. "Price versus quantity measures to deal with pollution and congestion in urban areas: A political economy approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Qiu, Feng & Tong, Qingmeng, 2021. "A spatial difference-in-differences approach to evaluate the impact of light rail transit on property values," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Lana Krehic, 2022. "How do increases in electric vehicle use affect urban toll ring prices?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 187-209, December.
    8. Ding, Hongliang & Sze, N.N. & Li, Haojie & Guo, Yanyong, 2021. "Affected area and residual period of London Congestion Charging scheme on road safety," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 120-128.
    9. Albalate, Daniel & Gragera, Albert, 2020. "The impact of curbside parking regulations on car ownership," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Bernardo, Valeria & Fageda, Xavier & Flores-Fillol, Ricardo, 2021. "Pollution and congestion in urban areas: The effects of low emission zones," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 26.
    11. Song, Siqi & Diao, Mi & Feng, Chen-Chieh, 2021. "Effects of pricing and infrastructure on car ownership: A pseudo-panel-based dynamic model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 115-126.
    12. Robert Kudłak & Wojciech Kisiała & Bartłomiej Kołsut, 2023. "Determinanty posiadania samochodu w Polsce: wyniki modelowania w ujęciu przestrzennym w latach 2005 i 2019," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 152-173.
    13. Li, Tianshu & Song, Shunfeng & Yang, Yanmin, 2022. "Driving restrictions, traffic speeds and carbon emissions: Evidence from high-frequency data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Jukka Heinonen & Michał Czepkiewicz & Áróra Árnadóttir & Juudit Ottelin, 2021. "Drivers of Car Ownership in a Car-Oriented City: A Mixed-Method Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-26, January.
    15. Chiara Castelli & Angela Parenti, 2020. "Commuting in Europe: An Inter-regional Analysis on its Determinants and Spatial Effects," Working Papers 2020.19, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Choudhary, Ravi & Vasudevan, Vinod, 2017. "Study of vehicle ownership for urban and rural households in India," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 52-58.
    17. Anna Gloria Billé & Marco Rogna, 2022. "The effect of weather conditions on fertilizer applications: A spatial dynamic panel data analysis," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 3-36, January.
    18. Ha, Tran Vinh & Asada, Takumi & Arimura, Mikiharu, 2019. "Determination of the influence factors on household vehicle ownership patterns in Phnom Penh using statistical and machine learning methods," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 70-86.
    19. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    20. Lehe, Lewis J. & Devunuri, Saipraneeth, 2022. "Large Elasticity at Introduction," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:160:y:2025:i:c:p:181-191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.