IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0242280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections

Author

Listed:
  • Dilsad Dagtekin
  • Evrim A Şahan
  • Thomas Denk
  • Nesibe Köse
  • H Nüzhet Dalfes

Abstract

Species distribution models can help predicting range shifts under climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the late Quaternary distribution of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) and to project future distribution ranges under different climate change scenarios using a combined palaeobotanical, phylogeographic, and modelling approach. Five species distribution modelling algorithms under the R-package `biomod2`were applied to occurrence data of Fagus orientalis to predict distributions under present, past (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 ka, Mid-Holocene, 6 ka), and future climatic conditions with different scenarios obtained from MIROC-ESM and CCSM4 global climate models. Distribution models were compared to palaeobotanical and phylogeographic evidence. Pollen data indicate northern Turkey and the western Caucasus as refugia for Oriental beech during the Last Glacial Maximum. Although pollen records are missing, molecular data point to Last Glacial Maximum refugia in northern Iran. For the mid-Holocene, pollen data support the presence of beech in the study region. Species distribution models predicted present and Last Glacial Maximum distribution of Fagus orientalis moderately well yet underestimated mid-Holocene ranges. Future projections under various climate scenarios indicate northern Iran and the Caucasus region as major refugia for Oriental beech. Combining palaeobotanical, phylogeographic and modelling approaches is useful when making projections about distributions of plants. Palaeobotanical and molecular evidence reject some of the model projections. Nevertheless, the projected range reduction in the Caucasus region and northern Iran highlights their importance as long-term refugia, possibly related to higher humidity, stronger environmental and climatic heterogeneity and strong vertical zonation of the forest vegetation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dilsad Dagtekin & Evrim A Şahan & Thomas Denk & Nesibe Köse & H Nüzhet Dalfes, 2020. "Past, present and future distributions of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis) under climate change projections," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0242280
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242280
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0242280&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0242280?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    2. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammed Mustafa Özdel & Beyza Ustaoğlu & İsa Cürebal, 2024. "Modeling of the Potential Distribution Areas Suitable for Olive ( Olea europaea L.) in Türkiye from a Climate Change Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Yixin Tong & Honglin Jiang & Ning Xu & Zhengzhong Wang & Ying Xiong & Jiangfan Yin & Junhui Huang & Yue Chen & Qingwu Jiang & Yibiao Zhou, 2023. "Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(6), pages 1-15, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Norman Myers, 2003. "Conservation of Biodiversity: How Are We Doing?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 9-15, March.
    2. Feng Dong & Chih-Ming Hung & Shou-Hsien Li & Xiao-Jun Yang, 2021. "Potential Himalayan community turnover through the Late Pleistocene," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Hyun-Jung Hong & Choong-Ki Kim & Hyun-Woo Lee & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2021. "Conservation, Restoration, and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity Based on Habitat Quality Monitoring: A Case Study on Jeju Island, South Korea (1989–2019)," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, July.
    4. Katherine Dagon & Daniel P. Schrag, 2019. "Quantifying the effects of solar geoengineering on vegetation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 235-251, March.
    5. Jhon Villarreal-Veloz & Xavier Zapata-Ríos & Karla Uvidia-Zambrano & Carla Borja-Escobar, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Description of the NDVI (MODIS) of the Ecuadorian Tussock Grasses and Its Link with the Hydrometeorological Variables and Global Climatic Indices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Erica N Spotswood & James W Bartolome & Barbara Allen-Diaz, 2015. "Hotspots of Community Change: Temporal Dynamics Are Spatially Variable in Understory Plant Composition of a California Oak Woodland," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-18, July.
    7. Laxmi D. Bhatta & Sunita Chaudhary & Anju Pandit & Himlal Baral & Partha J. Das & Nigel E. Stork, 2016. "Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    8. Mayeul Dalleau & Stéphane Ciccione & Jeanne A Mortimer & Julie Garnier & Simon Benhamou & Jérôme Bourjea, 2012. "Nesting Phenology of Marine Turtles: Insights from a Regional Comparative Analysis on Green Turtle (Chelonia mydas)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(10), pages 1-13, October.
    9. McLennan, D. & Sharma, R., 2012. "The Delivering Ecological Services Index (DESI)," Working papers 119, Rimisp Latin American Center for Rural Development.
    10. Bu, Lingduo & Chen, Xinping & Li, Shiqing & Liu, Jianliang & Zhu, Lin & Luo, Shasha & Lee Hill, Robert & Zhao, Ying, 2015. "The effect of adapting cultivars on the water use efficiency of dryland maize (Zea mays L.) in northwestern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    12. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    14. Monika Punia & Suman Nain & Amit Kumar & Bhupendra Singh & Amit Prakash & Krishan Kumar & V. Jain, 2015. "Analysis of temperature variability over north-west part of India for the period 1970–2000," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 935-952, January.
    15. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    16. Jaiswal, Sreeja & Balietti, Anca & Schäffer, Daniel, 2023. "Environmental Protection and Labor Market Composition," Working Papers 0736, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    17. Nicoletta Cannone & M. Guglielmin & P. Convey & M. R. Worland & S. E. Favero Longo, 2016. "Vascular plant changes in extreme environments: effects of multiple drivers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 651-665, February.
    18. Chomitz, Kenneth M. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Brandão, Antônio Salazar P., 2005. "The economic and environmental impact of trade in forest reserve obligations: a simulation analysis of options for dealing with habitat heterogeneity," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 43(4), January.
    19. Elisa Barbour & Lara Kueppers, 2012. "Conservation and management of ecological systems in a changing California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 135-163, March.
    20. Tyler M Harms & Kevin T Murphy & Xiaodan Lyu & Shane S Patterson & Karen E Kinkead & Stephen J Dinsmore & Paul W Frese, 2017. "Using landscape habitat associations to prioritize areas of conservation action for terrestrial birds," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0242280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.