IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0216461.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin

Author

Listed:
  • Andimuthu Ramachandran
  • Kandasamy Palanivelu
  • B V Mudgal
  • Anushiya Jeganathan
  • Sankar Guganesh
  • Balu Abinaya
  • Arunbabu Elangovan

Abstract

Flooding is one of the most disastrous global hazards, which has been occurring more frequently in recent times. It is observed that climate change is likely to increase the intensity and the frequency of floods and river basins have become more vulnerable to fluvial flooding. In this study, the impact of climate change on fluvial flooding was analyzed over the Adyar sub-basin. This study applied statistically downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data in a CMIP5 dataset of IPCC Assessment Report 5 (AR5). Based on the performance to simulate the observed climate, four GCMs, namely, cesm1-cam5, mpi-esm-mr, ncar-ccsm4, and bnu-esm, for RCP 4.5 were selected for projections of the future scenario. The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for the past and future scenarios were derived from the IMD-observed and GCM-projected rainfall data. Integrated flood modeling was performed with hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (HEC-RAS) models. Finally, in order to visualize the inundation areas according to the future climate projection, flood inundation maps were prepared geospatially using the ArcGIS software. For the 100-year return period, the results predict that the peak discharge for the future climate scenario would increase by 34.3%–91.9% as compared to the present climate scenario. Similarly, the future projections show an increase in the flooded area ranging from 12.6% to 26.4% based on GCMs. This simulation helps in understanding the flood risk over the Adyar sub-basin under the changing climate and the requirement for the regulation of developmental activities over the flood-prone areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Andimuthu Ramachandran & Kandasamy Palanivelu & B V Mudgal & Anushiya Jeganathan & Sankar Guganesh & Balu Abinaya & Arunbabu Elangovan, 2019. "Climate change impact on fluvial flooding in the Indian sub-basin: A case study on the Adyar sub-basin," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-24, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0216461
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0216461
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0216461
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0216461&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0216461?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Ranger & Stéphane Hallegatte & Sumana Bhattacharya & Murthy Bachu & Satya Priya & K. Dhore & Farhat Rafique & P. Mathur & Nicolas Naville & Fanny Henriet & Celine Herweijer & Sanjib Pohit & Jan, 2011. "An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 139-167, January.
    2. Nigel Arnell & Ben Lloyd-Hughes, 2014. "The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 127-140, January.
    3. Nigel Arnell & Simon Gosling, 2016. "The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 387-401, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhiqiang Yin & Yixin Hu & Katie Jenkins & Yi He & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Rachel Warren & Lili Yang & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Assessing the economic impacts of future fluvial flooding in six countries under climate change and socio-economic development," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Weiping Wang & Saini Yang & Jianxi Gao & Fuyu Hu & Wanyi Zhao & H. Eugene Stanley, 2020. "An Integrated Approach for Assessing the Impact of Large‐Scale Future Floods on a Highway Transport System," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1780-1794, September.
    3. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    4. Shanshan Hu & Xiangjun Cheng & Demin Zhou & Hong Zhang, 2017. "GIS-based flood risk assessment in suburban areas: a case study of the Fangshan District, Beijing," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(3), pages 1525-1543, July.
    5. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    6. Hisham Eldardiry & Emad Habib & David M. Borrok, 2020. "Accounting for Inter-Annual and Seasonal Variability in Assessment of Water Supply Stress: Perspectives from a humid region in the USA," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2517-2534, June.
    7. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Frank Baffour-Ata & Sarah Koomson & Nana Kwame Kyeretwie & Nana Barimah Nti & Afia Oforiwaa Owusu & Fukaiha Abdul Razak, 2023. "Drivers and coping mechanisms for floods: experiences of residents in urban Kumasi, Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2477-2500, March.
    8. Badri Bhakta Shrestha & Edangodage Duminda Pradeep Perera & Shun Kudo & Mamoru Miyamoto & Yusuke Yamazaki & Daisuke Kuribayashi & Hisaya Sawano & Takahiro Sayama & Jun Magome & Akira Hasegawa & Tomoki, 2019. "Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(1), pages 157-192, May.
    9. Bushra Khalid & Bueh Cholaw & Débora Souza Alvim & Shumaila Javeed & Junaid Aziz Khan & Muhammad Asif Javed & Azmat Hayat Khan, 2018. "Riverine flood assessment in Jhang district in connection with ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall over Upper Indus Basin for 2010," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 971-993, June.
    10. Mashkhura Babadjanova & Ihtiyor Bobojonov & Maksud Bekchanov & Lena Kuhn & Thomas Glauben, 2024. "Can domestic wheat farming meet the climate change-induced challenges of national food security in Uzbekistan?," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 448-462, May.
    11. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    12. Laura Devitt & Jeffrey Neal & Gemma Coxon & James Savage & Thorsten Wagener, 2023. "Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Alem, Douglas & Clark, Alistair & Moreno, Alfredo, 2016. "Stochastic network models for logistics planning in disaster relief," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 255(1), pages 187-206.
    14. Shao Sun & Zunya Wang & Chuanye Hu & Ge Gao, 2021. "Understanding Climate Hazard Patterns and Urban Adaptation Measures in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-12, December.
    15. Otto, Christian & Willner, Sven Norman & Wenz, Leonie & Frieler, Katja & Levermann, Anders, 2017. "Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate," OSF Preprints 7yyhd, Center for Open Science.
    16. Arna Nishita Nithila & Paromita Shome & Ishrat Islam, 2022. "Waterlogging induced loss and damage assessment of urban households in the monsoon period: a case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(3), pages 1565-1597, February.
    17. Indira Pokhrel & Ajay Kalra & Md Mafuzur Rahaman & Ranjeet Thakali, 2020. "Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-23, August.
    18. Surminski, Swenja & Eldridge, Jillian, 2015. "Flood insurance in England: an assessment of the current and newly proposed insurance scheme in the context of rising flood risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66256, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Osberghaus, Daniel & Reif, Christiane, 2021. "How do different compensation schemes and loss experience affect insurance decisions? Experimental evidence from two independent and heterogeneous samples," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    20. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0216461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.