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Single-Target Implicit Association Tests (ST-IAT) Predict Voting Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters in Swiss Referendums

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  • Livio Raccuia

Abstract

Undecided voters represent a major challenge to political pollsters. Recently, political psychologists have proposed the use of implicit association tests (IAT) to measure implicit attitudes toward political parties and candidates and predict voting behavior of undecided voters. A number of studies have shown that both implicit and explicit (i.e., self-reported) attitudes contribute to the prediction of voting behavior. More importantly, recent research suggests that implicit attitudes may be more useful for predicting the vote of undecided voters in the case of specific political issues rather than elections. Due to its direct-democratic political system, Switzerland represents an ideal place to investigate the predictive validity of IATs in the context of political votes. In this article, I present evidence from three studies in which both explicit and implicit measures were used ahead of the vote on four different referendums. Explicit measures predicted voting better than implicit attitudes for decided voters while implicit and explicit attitudes were equally good predictors among undecided voters. In addition, implicit attitudes predicted voting behavior descriptively, but not significantly better for undecided voters while, also from a descriptive point of view, explicit attitudes predicted voting better for decided respondents. In sum, results suggest that, as argued in previous research, the predictive value of implicit attitudes may be higher in the context of issue-related votes but still not as high as initially hoped-for.

Suggested Citation

  • Livio Raccuia, 2016. "Single-Target Implicit Association Tests (ST-IAT) Predict Voting Behavior of Decided and Undecided Voters in Swiss Referendums," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0163872
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristjen B Lundberg & B Keith Payne, 2014. "Decisions among the Undecided: Implicit Attitudes Predict Future Voting Behavior of Undecided Voters," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-11, January.
    2. Malte Friese & Colin Tucker Smith & Thomas Plischke & Matthias Bluemke & Brian A Nosek, 2012. "Do Implicit Attitudes Predict Actual Voting Behavior Particularly for Undecided Voters?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Eric Luis Uhlmann & Anthony Greenwald & Andrew Poehlmann & Mahzarin Banaji, 2009. "Understanding and Using the Implicit Association Test: III. Meta-Analysis of Predictive Validity," Post-Print hal-00516146, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabrice Murtin & Lara Fleischer & Vincent Siegerink & Arnstein Aassve & Yann Algan & Romina Boarini & Santiago Gonzalez & Zsuzsanna Lonti & Ulrich Schmidt & Gianluca Grimalda & Rafael Hortala Vallve &, 2018. "Trust and its determinants," Sciences Po publications 89, Sciences Po.
      • Fabrice Murtin & Lara Fleischer & Vincent Siegerink & Arnstein Aassve & Yann Algan & Romina Boarini & Santiago Gonzalez & Zsuzsanna Lonti & Ulrich Schmidt & Gianluca Grimalda & Rafael Hortala Vallve &, 2018. "Trust and its determinants," SciencePo Working papers hal-03596480, HAL.
      • Fabrice Murtin & Lara Fleischer & Vincent Siegerink & Arnstein Aassve & Yann Algan & Romina Boarini & Santiago Gonzalez & Zsuzsanna Lonti & Ulrich Schmidt & Gianluca Grimalda & Rafael Hortala Vallve &, 2018. "Trust and its determinants," Working Papers hal-03596480, HAL.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/h44c7ona088fb5o9b5dq3nt9u is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fabrice Murtin & Lara Fleischer & Vincent Siegerink & Arnstein Aassve & Yann Algan & Romina Boarini & Santiago Gonzalez & Zsuzsanna Lonti & Ulrich Schmidt & Gianluca Grimalda & Rafael Hortala Vallve &, 2018. "Trust and its determinants," Working Papers hal-03596480, HAL.
      • Fabrice Murtin & Lara Fleischer & Vincent Siegerink & Arnstein Aassve & Yann Algan & Romina Boarini & Santiago Gonzalez & Zsuzsanna Lonti & Ulrich Schmidt & Gianluca Grimalda & Rafael Hortala Vallve &, 2018. "Trust and its determinants," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03596480, HAL.
    4. Kondylis,Florence & Legovini,Arianna & Vyborny,Kate & Zwager,Astrid Maria Theresia & Cardoso De Andrade,Luiza, 2020. "Demand for Safe Spaces : Avoiding Harassment and Stigma," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9269, The World Bank.
    5. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Francesco Chiocchio & Francesco Gandolfi & Arianna Gatta & Francesco Mattioli, 2018. "Trustlab Italy: a New Dataset for the study of Trust, Family Demography and Personality," Working Papers 115, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.

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