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Weekly Fluctuations in Risk Tolerance and Voting Behaviour

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  • Jet G Sanders
  • Rob Jenkins

Abstract

Risk tolerance is fundamental to decision-making and behaviour. Here we show that individuals’ tolerance of risk follows a weekly cycle. We observed this cycle directly in a behavioural experiment using the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002; Study 1). We also observed it indirectly via voting intentions, gathered from 81,564 responses across 70 opinion polls ahead of the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 (Study 2) and 149,064 responses across 77 opinion polls ahead of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum of 2016 (Study 3). In all three studies, risk-tolerance decreased from Monday to Thursday before returning to a higher level on Friday. This pattern is politically significant because UK elections and referendums are traditionally held on a Thursday—the lowest point for risk tolerance. In particular, it raises the possibility that voting outcomes in the UK could be systematically risk-averse. In line with our analysis, the actual proportion of Yes votes in the Scottish Independence Referendum was 4% lower than forecast. Taken together, our findings reveal that the seven-day weekly cycle may have unexpected consequences for human decision-making. They also suggest that the day on which a vote is held could determine its outcome.

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  • Jet G Sanders & Rob Jenkins, 2016. "Weekly Fluctuations in Risk Tolerance and Voting Behaviour," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-12, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0159017
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0159017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. Malte Friese & Colin Tucker Smith & Thomas Plischke & Matthias Bluemke & Brian A Nosek, 2012. "Do Implicit Attitudes Predict Actual Voting Behavior Particularly for Undecided Voters?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-14, August.
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    1. Bellani, Luna & Ceolotto, Stefano & Elsner, Benjamin & Pestel, Nico, 2021. "Air Pollution Affects Decision-Making: Evidence from the Ballot Box," IZA Discussion Papers 14718, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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