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Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

Author

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  • Cliona Ni Mhurchu
  • Helen Eyles
  • Murat Genc
  • Peter Scarborough
  • Mike Rayner
  • Anja Mizdrak
  • Kelechi Nnoaham
  • Tony Blakely

Abstract

Background: Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods: A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings: A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions: Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Helen Eyles & Murat Genc & Peter Scarborough & Mike Rayner & Anja Mizdrak & Kelechi Nnoaham & Tony Blakely, 2015. "Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0128477
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128477
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rhys Jones & Alexandra Macmillan & Papaarangi Reid, 2020. "Climate Change Mitigation Policies and Co-Impacts on Indigenous Health: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Tiff-Annie Kenny & Matthew Little & Tad Lemieux & P. Joshua Griffin & Sonia D. Wesche & Yoshitaka Ota & Malek Batal & Hing Man Chan & Melanie Lemire, 2020. "The Retail Food Sector and Indigenous Peoples in High-Income Countries: A Systematic Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(23), pages 1-49, November.
    3. Saha, Sanjib & Nordström, Jonas & Scarborough, Peter & Thunström, Linda & Gerdtham, Ulf-G., 2021. "In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food: A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    4. Sanjib Saha & Jonas Nordstrom & Ulf-G Gerdtham & Irene Mattisson & Peter M Nilsson & Peter Scarborough, 2019. "Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population: A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-11, March.
    5. Tony Blakely & Nhung Nghiem & Murat Genc & Anja Mizdrak & Linda Cobiac & Cliona Ni Mhurchu & Boyd Swinburn & Peter Scarborough & Christine Cleghorn, 2020. "Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Alasdair Gardiner, 2016. "Implications of a Sugar Tax in New Zealand: Incidence and Effectiveness," Treasury Working Paper Series 16/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Murat Genc, 2016. "Empirical Estimation of Elasticities and Their Use," EcoMod2016 9510, EcoMod.
    8. Liana Jacobi & Nhung Nghiem & Andrés Ramírez‐Hassan & Tony Blakely, 2021. "Food Price Elasticities for Policy Interventions: Estimates from a Virtual Supermarket Experiment in a Multistage Demand Analysis with (Expert) Prior Information," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(319), pages 457-490, December.

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