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Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance

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  • Richard H. Waring

    (Oregon State University)

  • Nicholas C. Coops

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

A lengthening of the fire season, coupled with higher temperatures, increases the probability of fires throughout much of western North America. Although regional variation in the frequency of fires is well established, attempts to predict the occurrence of fire at a spatial resolution 1 km occurred and did not occur at ~100,000 randomly located pixels with an average accuracy of 69 %. Extended over the decade, the area predicted burnt varied by as much as 50 %. The DT identified four seasonal combinations, most of which included exhaustion of ASW during the summer as critical; two combinations involving antecedent conditions the previous spring or fall accounted for 86 % of the predicted fires. The approach introduced in this paper can help identify forested areas where management efforts to reduce fire hazards might prove most beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Waring & Nicholas C. Coops, 2016. "Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 135(2), pages 325-339, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:135:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1569-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1569-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philip E Higuera & John T Abatzoglou & Jeremy S Littell & Penelope Morgan, 2015. "The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(6), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Peterman, Wendy & Bachelet, Dominique & Ferschweiler, Ken & Sheehan, Timothy, 2014. "Soil depth affects simulated carbon and water in the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 84-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mathys, A.S. & Coops, N.C. & Simard, S.W. & Waring, R.H. & Aitken, S.N., 2018. "Diverging distribution of seedlings and mature trees reflects recent climate change in British Columbia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 145-153.
    2. Gupta, Rajit & Sharma, Laxmi Kant, 2019. "The process-based forest growth model 3-PG for use in forest management: A review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 397(C), pages 55-73.

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