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Risk-Return Relationship in a Complex Adaptive System

Author

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  • Kunyu Song
  • Kenan An
  • Guang Yang
  • Jiping Huang

Abstract

For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunyu Song & Kenan An & Guang Yang & Jiping Huang, 2012. "Risk-Return Relationship in a Complex Adaptive System," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(3), pages 1-8, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0033588
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0033588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Wei, J.R. & Huang, J.P. & Hui, P.M., 2013. "An agent-based model of stock markets incorporating momentum investors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(12), pages 2728-2735.
    4. Kamaldeen Ibraheem Nageri & Azeez Tunbosun Lawal & Falilat Ajoke Abdul, 2019. "Risk - Return Relationship: Nigerian Stock Market during Pre and Post 2007-2009 Financial Meltdown," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 52-62, June.
    5. Chenge Zhu & Guang Yang & Kenan An & Jiping Huang, 2014. "The Leverage Effect on Wealth Distribution in a Controllable Laboratory Stock Market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(6), pages 1-10, June.

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