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Contribution of Company Affiliation and Social Contacts to Risk Estimates of Between-Farm Transmission of Avian Influenza

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  • Jessica H Leibler
  • Marco Carone
  • Ellen K Silbergeld

Abstract

Background: Models of between-farm transmission of pathogens have identified service vehicles and social groups as risk factors mediating the spread of infection. Because of high levels of economic organization in much of the poultry industry, we examined the importance of company affiliation, as distinct from social contacts, in a model of the potential spread of avian influenza among broiler poultry farms in a poultry-dense region in the United States. The contribution of company affiliation to risk of between-farm disease transmission has not been previously studied. Methodology/Principal Findings: We obtained data on the nature and frequency of business and social contacts through a national survey of broiler poultry growers in the United States. Daily rates of contact were estimated using Monte Carlo analysis. Stochastic modeling techniques were used to estimate the exposure risk posed by a single infectious farm to other farms in the region and relative risk of exposure for farms under different scenarios. The mean daily rate of vehicular contact was 0.82 vehicles/day. The magnitude of exposure risk ranged from

Suggested Citation

  • Jessica H Leibler & Marco Carone & Ellen K Silbergeld, 2010. "Contribution of Company Affiliation and Social Contacts to Risk Estimates of Between-Farm Transmission of Avian Influenza," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(3), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0009888
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0009888
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martinez, Stephen W., 1999. "Vertical Coordination in the Pork and Broiler Industries: Implications for Pork and Chicken Products," Agricultural Economic Reports 34031, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Gavin J. D. Smith & Dhanasekaran Vijaykrishna & Justin Bahl & Samantha J. Lycett & Michael Worobey & Oliver G. Pybus & Siu Kit Ma & Chung Lam Cheung & Jayna Raghwani & Samir Bhatt & J. S. Malik Peiris, 2009. "Origins and evolutionary genomics of the 2009 swine-origin H1N1 influenza A epidemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7250), pages 1122-1125, June.
    3. Gabriele Neumann & Takeshi Noda & Yoshihiro Kawaoka, 2009. "Emergence and pandemic potential of swine-origin H1N1 influenza virus," Nature, Nature, vol. 459(7249), pages 931-939, June.
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    1. Christine Moore & Graeme S Cumming & Jasper Slingsby & John Grewar, 2014. "Tracking Socioeconomic Vulnerability Using Network Analysis: Insights from an Avian Influenza Outbreak in an Ostrich Production Network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, January.

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