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Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics

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  • Nita Bharti
  • Yingcun Xia
  • Ottar N Bjornstad
  • Bryan T Grenfell

Abstract

Mathematical models can help elucidate the spatio-temporal dynamics of epidemics as well as the impact of control measures. The gravity model for directly transmitted diseases is currently one of the most parsimonious models for spatial epidemic spread. This model uses distance-weighted, population size-dependent coupling to estimate host movement and disease incidence in metapopulations. The model captures overall measles dynamics in terms of underlying human movement in pre-vaccination England and Wales (previously established). In spatial models, edges often present a special challenge. Therefore, to test the model's robustness, we analyzed gravity model incidence predictions for coastal cities in England and Wales. Results show that, although predictions are accurate for inland towns, they significantly underestimate coastal persistence. We examine incidence, outbreak seasonality, and public transportation records, to show that the model's inaccuracies stem from an underestimation of total contacts per individual along the coast. We rescue this predicted ‘edge effect’ by increasing coastal contacts to approximate the number of per capita inland contacts. These results illustrate the impact of ‘edge effects’ on epidemic metapopulations in general and illustrate directions for the refinement of spatiotemporal epidemic models.

Suggested Citation

  • Nita Bharti & Yingcun Xia & Ottar N Bjornstad & Bryan T Grenfell, 2008. "Measles on the Edge: Coastal Heterogeneities and Infection Dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(4), pages 1-7, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0001941
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0001941
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. B. T. Grenfell & O. N. Bjørnstad & J. Kappey, 2001. "Travelling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6865), pages 716-723, December.
    2. D. Brockmann & L. Hufnagel & T. Geisel, 2006. "The scaling laws of human travel," Nature, Nature, vol. 439(7075), pages 462-465, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. James H Stark & Derek A T Cummings & Bard Ermentrout & Stephen Ostroff & Ravi Sharma & Samuel Stebbins & Donald S Burke & Stephen R Wisniewski, 2012. "Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-9, August.
    2. Michele Tizzoni & Paolo Bajardi & Adeline Decuyper & Guillaume Kon Kam King & Christian M Schneider & Vincent Blondel & Zbigniew Smoreda & Marta C González & Vittoria Colizza, 2014. "On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(7), pages 1-15, July.
    3. Laura W Pomeroy & Hyeyoung Kim & Ningchuan Xiao & Mark Moritz & Rebecca Garabed, 2019. "Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-17, August.

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