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An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021

Author

Listed:
  • Amna Tariq
  • Tsira Chakhaia
  • Sushma Dahal
  • Alexander Ewing
  • Xinyi Hua
  • Sylvia K Ofori
  • Olaseni Prince
  • Argita D Salindri
  • Ayotomiwa Ezekiel Adeniyi
  • Juan M Banda
  • Pavel Skums
  • Ruiyan Luo
  • Leidy Y Lara-Díaz
  • Raimund Bürger
  • Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
  • Eunha Shim
  • Alexander Kirpich
  • Anuj Srivastava
  • Gerardo Chowell

Abstract

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with Rt

Suggested Citation

  • Amna Tariq & Tsira Chakhaia & Sushma Dahal & Alexander Ewing & Xinyi Hua & Sylvia K Ofori & Olaseni Prince & Argita D Salindri & Ayotomiwa Ezekiel Adeniyi & Juan M Banda & Pavel Skums & Ruiyan Luo & L, 2022. "An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Colombia, 2020–2021," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pntd00:0010228
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nikos Kapitsinis, 2020. "The underlying factors of the COVID‐19 spatially uneven spread. Initial evidence from regions in nine EU countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1027-1045, December.
    2. Smriti Mallapaty, 2021. "Are COVID vaccination programmes working? Scientists seek first clues," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7843), pages 504-505, January.
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