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Unraveling spatial patterns of COVID‐19 in Italy: Global forces and local economic drivers

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  • Eleonora Cutrini
  • Luca Salvati

Abstract

This article investigates the spatial patterns of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) infection in Italy and its determinants from March 9 to June 15, 2020, a time interval covering the so‐called first wave of COVID pandemics in Europe. The results, based on negative binomial regressions and linear spatial models, confirm the importance of multiple factors that positively correlate with the number of recorded cases. Economic forces, including urban agglomeration, industrial districts, concentration of large companies (both before and after the beginning of the ‘lockdown’) and a north–south gradient, are the most significant predictors of the strength of COVID‐19 infection. These effects are statistically more robust in the spatial models than in the aspatial ones. We interpretate our results in the light of pitfalls related to data reliability, and we discuss policy implications and possible avenues for future research.

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  • Eleonora Cutrini & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Unraveling spatial patterns of COVID‐19 in Italy: Global forces and local economic drivers," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 73-108, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:13:y:2021:i:s1:p:73-108
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12465
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    2. Federico Benassi & Maria Carella, 2023. "Modelling geographical variations in fertility and population density of Italian and foreign populations at the local scale: a spatial Durbin approach for Italy (2002–2018)," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 2147-2164, June.
    3. Mehmet Ronael & Tüzin Baycan, 2022. "Place-based factors affecting COVID-19 incidences in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1053-1086, October.
    4. Clio Ciaschini & Margherita Carlucci & Francesco Maria Chelli & Giuseppe Ricciardo Lamonica & Luca Salvati, 2023. "COVID-19 and decreasing consumption: a multisectoral assesment for Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1162-1171.
    5. Kostas Rontos & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Mattia Gianvincenzi & Simona Moretti & Luca Salvati, 2023. "Toward a Spatially Segregated Urban Growth? Austerity, Poverty, and the Demographic Decline of Metropolitan Greece," Data, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, March.
    6. Andree Ehlert & Jan Wedemeier, 2022. "Which factors influence mobility change during COVID‐19 in Germany? Evidence from German county data," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S1), pages 61-79, November.
    7. Tüzin Baycan & Suat Tuysuz, 2022. "Special Feature on social, economic, and spatial impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1041-1051, October.

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