Assessing predictors for new post translational modification sites: A case study on hydroxylation

Post-translational modification (PTM) sites have become popular for predictor development. However, with the exception of phosphorylation and a handful of other examples, PTMs suffer from a limited number of available training examples and sparsity in protein sequences. Here, proline hydroxylation is taken as an example to compare different methods and evaluate their performance on new experimentally determined sites. As a guide for effective experimental design, predictors require both high specificity and sensitivity. However, the self-reported performance may often not be indicative of prediction quality and detection of new sites is not guaranteed. We have benchmarked seven published hydroxylation site predictors on two newly constructed independent datasets. The self-reported performance is found to widely overestimate the real accuracy measured on independent datasets. No predictor performs better than random on new examples, indicating the refined models do not sufficiently generalize to detect new sites. The number of false positives is high and precision low, in particular for non-collagen proteins whose motifs are not conserved. As hydroxylation site predictors do not generalize for new data, caution is advised when using PTM predictors in the absence of independent evaluations, in particular for highly specific sites involved in signalling.Author summary: Machine learning methods are extensively used by biologists to design and interpret experiments. Predictors which take the only sequence as input are of particular interest due to the large amount of available sequence data and high self-reported performance. In this work, we evaluated post-translational modification (PTM) predictors for hydroxylation sites and found that they perform no better than random, in strong contrast to performances reported in their original publications. PTMs are chemical amino acid alterations providing the cell with conditional mechanisms to fine tune protein function, regulating complex biological processes such as signalling and cell cycle. Hydroxylation sites are a good PTM test case due to the availability of a range of predictors and an abundance of newly experimentally detected modification sites. Poor performances in our results highlight the overlooked problem of predicting PTMs when best practices are not followed and training data are likely incomplete. Experimentalists should be careful when using PTM predictors blindly and more independent assessments are needed to establish their usefulness in practice.