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Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)

Author

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  • Poggi, Ambra

    (University of Milan Bicocca)

  • Ramos, Xavier

    (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Abstract

Economic theory and empirical evidence clearly show that social exclusion dimensions are inter-related. Notwithstanding that, dimensions are usually assumed independent from one another in the economics literature. In this paper we explore the inter-dependency of social exclusion dimensions and study the transmission of deprivation among them. In particular, we propose the use of stochastic epidemic models, which are typically used to study the transmission of infectious diseases, to the analysis of deprivation diffusion among social exclusion dimensions with the aim of acquiring a deeper understanding of the mechanism governing deprivation transmission. We also provide an empirical implementation that investigates the consequences, in terms of future deprivation, for Italian and Spanish women of being jobless, as opposed to doing paid work. We also investigate the consequences of being unemployed versus being inactive. We conclude that working seems to act as a protective mechanism to shocks. In addition, conditional on losing one’s job, women who subsequently search for a job (unemployed) are more likely to experience contagion than women who do not search (inactive).

Suggested Citation

  • Poggi, Ambra & Ramos, Xavier, 2007. "Empirical Modeling of Deprivation Contagion among Social Exclusion Dimensions (Using MCMC Methods)," IZA Discussion Papers 2614, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2614
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    2. Satya R. Chakravarty & Conchita D’Ambrosio, 2019. "The Measurement of Social Exclusion," Themes in Economics, in: Satya R. Chakravarty (ed.), Poverty, Social Exclusion and Stochastic Dominance, pages 167-189, Springer.
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    6. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio & Vito Peragine, 2007. "Deprivation and Social Exclusion," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 777-803, November.
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    9. Ambra Poggi, 2007. "Does persistence of social exclusion exist in Spain?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 5(1), pages 53-72, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine Pollak & Bernard Gazier, 2008. "L'apport des analyses longitudinales dans la connaissance des phénomènes de pauvreté et d'exclusion sociale : un survey de la littérature étrangère," Post-Print hal-00393322, HAL.
    2. Francesco Devicienti & Ambra Poggi, 2011. "Poverty and social exclusion: two sides of the same coin or dynamically interrelated processes?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3549-3571.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    contagion models; Markov chain Monte Carlo methods; metropolis-Hastings algorithm; social exclusion; stochastic models; deprivation; propensity score;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

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