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Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

Author

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  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qayyum, 2002. "Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 551-566.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:41:y:2002:i:4:p:551-566
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eika, Kari H & Ericsson, Neil R & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1996. "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 765-790, November.
    2. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
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    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    5. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    6. Faiz Bilquees, 1988. "Inflation in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence on the Monetarist and Structuralist Hypotheses," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 109-129.
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Kenny Turnbull, 2000. "Monetary Conditions Indices for the UK: A Survey," Discussion Papers 01, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Durdana Qaiser Gillani & An ul Abdin, 2021. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth in Pakistan Economy," Journal of Education and Social Studies, Science Impact Publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 95-101.
    2. Muhammad Arif, 2007. "Developing Bond Market in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 129-157.
    3. Shazia Sana & Shahnawaz Malik & Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh, 2022. "Investigating The Effectiveness Of Channels Of Monetary Transmission Mechanism In Pakistan: An Application Of Var Model, Impulse Response Function And Variance Decomposition," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 11(2), pages 160-184, June.
    4. Sajawal Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Measures of Monetary Policy Stance : The Case of Pakistan," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22201, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. Hematy , Maryam & Boostani , Reza, 2014. "Constructing a New Monetary Condition Index for Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(3), pages 119-147, April.
    6. Zulfiqar Hyder & Muhammad Mazhar Khan, 2007. "Monetary Conditions Index for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 3, pages 165-190.
    7. Aadil Nakhoda, 2014. "The Influence of Industry Financial Composition on the Exports from Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 10, pages 21-49.
    8. Muhammad Zahid Naeem & Chan Bibi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Economic Growth under the Perspective of Monetary Policy in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(3), pages 164-176, September.
    9. Magdalena Petrovska & Ljupka Georgievska, 2015. "Alternative Indicator of Monetary Policy Stance for Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-01, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.

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    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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