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Constructing a New Monetary Condition Index for Iran

Author

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  • Hematy , Maryam

    (Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRI), Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran (CBI))

  • Boostani , Reza

    (Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract

Reliable measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very crucial for examining the effects of monetary policy on the economy. Monetary Condition Index (MCI) can be used as a tool to assess the stance of monetary policy. This index is defined as the weighted average of different monetary transmission mechanism relative to their values in a base period. The weights in MCI are the relative importance of each channel in transmitting monetary shocks in the economy. In this paper we construct a new MCI for Iran that characterizes three key innovations. First, for estimation of MCI's weights, we employ system of equations (VARX) in order to solve the problem of exogeneity arising from single equation method. Second, beside exchange rate and credit channel, it includes asset price channel. Third, we utilize a quarterly data set which seems more plausible for studying short-run dynamics regarding the monetary policy. Our estimated index over the 1991Q2-2014Q1 indicates that in more than 74% of quarters under consideration, monetary condition in Iran is easing relative to the base period (2004:2). The empirical results show MCI leads roughly 1 quarter ahead of inflation. Therefore, this index can be used as the leading indicator of the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Hematy , Maryam & Boostani , Reza, 2014. "Constructing a New Monetary Condition Index for Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(3), pages 119-147, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:9:y:2014:i:3:p:119-147
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wensheng Peng & Frank Leung, 2005. "A Monetary Conditions Index for Mainland China," Working Papers 0501, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    2. Wai-Ching Poon, 2009. "Is Asset Price Relevant in Constructing Monetary Conditions Index for Indonesia?," The IUP Journal of Applied Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3-4), pages 72-83, May-July.
    3. By James Morsink & Tamim Bayoumi, 2001. "A Peek Inside the Black Box: The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-2.
    4. Jalali-Naini , Ahmad R. & Hemmaty , Maryam, 2013. "Threshold Effects in the Monetary Policy Reaction Function: Evidence from Central Bank of Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, January.
    5. Abdul Qayyum, 2002. "Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 551-566.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Condition Index; Monetary transmission mechanism; Credit channel; VARX; Inflation forecasts.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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