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The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area

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  • David Mayes
  • Matti Virén

Abstract

Using information from a variety of sources, including our own estimates from quarterly data for each of the countries over the period 1972-1997, this paper suggests that the exchange rate will play an important role in the transmission of the impact of monetary policy through to the real economy and inflation in the euro area.Although the share of external trade in the euro area's GDP is only around 10 per cent this is only one factor that affects the transmission mechanism and the role of the exchange rate is likely to be substantially greater when all factors are taken into account.As a first approximation it would be reasonable to assume that an increase in the real 90-day interest rate of 100 basis points would have approximately the same effect on demand pressure two years later as a 3.5 per cent fall in the real euro exchange rate.This implies that the euro area will tend to behave like a large open economy rather than a closed economy and hence that it would be helpful in informing monetary policy to construct a Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) using these weights.A separate paper (Mayes and Virén 1998) suggests how an MCI provides a useful summary of high frequency information to assist monetary policy and financial markets in short run decisions..
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  • David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2000. "The exchange rate and monetary conditions in the Euro area," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(2), pages 199-231, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:136:y:2000:i:2:p:199-231
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02707686
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali MNA & Moheddine YOUNSI, 2018. "A monetary conditions index and its application on Tunisian economic forecasting," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 38-56, March.
    2. Muhamed Zulkhibri Abdul Majid, 2012. "Measuring monetary conditions in a small open economy: the case of Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 218-231, July.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Wollmershauser, Timo, 2001. "Is there a third way to EMU for the EU accession countries?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 253-274, September.
    4. Paulo Soares Esteves, 2003. "Monetary Conditions Index for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Monash Economics Working Papers 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's monetary policy optimal?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 298-319, September.
    7. Andrzej Toroj, 2008. "Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland," Working Papers 27, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    8. David Mayes & Matti Virén, 2010. "The Impact of Asset Prices and their Information Value for Monetary Policy," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 28(61), pages 134-167, August.
    9. David G. Mayes & Matti Virén, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Macroeconomics 0404024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mayes, David & Virén, Matti, 2009. "Changes in behaviour under EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 751-759, July.
    11. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice: Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 74628, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2016.
    12. Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Was ECB's Monetary Policy Optimal?," WIFO Working Papers 173, WIFO.
    13. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2011. "Monetary Policy in a Small Economy after Tsunami: A New Consensus on the Horizon?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(1), pages 5-33, January.
    14. Wladimir Andreff, 2001. "The benefits of EU enlargement and Euro membership for Central and Eastern European Countries," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 48-63.
    15. Mna, Ali & Younsi, Moheddine, 2018. "A Monetary Conditions Index and its Application on Tunisian Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 83648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Chaouech, Olfa, 2015. "Taylor rule in practice : Evidence from tunisia," MPRA Paper 66771, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2015.
    17. Wladimir Andreff, 2001. "Les gains attendus par les pays d'Europe Centrale et Orientale de l'élargissement de l'Union européenne et de l'entrée dans l'euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 49-64.
    18. Alfred Guender, 2005. "On Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and the Construction of MCIs in the Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 189-207, April.
    19. Torój, Andrzej, 2010. "Adjustment capacity in a monetary union: a DSGE evaluation of Poland and Slovakia," MF Working Papers 4, Ministry of Finance in Poland, revised 11 May 2010.
    20. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:662:p:1-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lucia Mihóková & Radovan Dráb & Andrea Kralik, 2018. "Assessing the Impact of Tax Evasion on Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance: A Sensitivity Analysis Application," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 331-350.
    22. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," NBP Working Papers 86, Narodowy Bank Polski.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E52; E58;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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