IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/marecl/v26y2024i3d10.1057_s41278-023-00282-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Food security under global economic policy uncertainty: fresh insights from the ocean transportation of food

Author

Listed:
  • Ling Sun

    (Shanghai Maritime University
    Fudan University
    French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS))

  • Wenjing Zhang

    (Shanghai Maritime University)

  • Zijiang Hu

    (Fudan University
    Jiangsu University of Technology)

  • Zhong Ning

    (Fudan University)

Abstract

The Russian–Ukrainian conflict has led to ongoing disruptions in global agricultural prices and maritime transport markets, exacerbating food insecurity and raising concerns about the ocean transportation of food. To comprehend this complex relationship, this study employs a vector autoregression model to investigate the time-varying nonlinear connection among global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU), food prices, and maritime transport. Utilizing bivariate and multivariate wavelet frameworks, we validate and explore the lead-lag relationships, co-movements, and dynamic associations among these indicators across various time and frequency domains. The findings reveal a significant covariance among the variables, with medium- and long-term changes being more affected by short-term shocks. Furthermore, there exists both positive and negative interdependence among the variables in the long term, with the interdependence strengthening progressively from the medium to the long term. Notably, the volatility of ocean freight rates has exceeded that of food prices in recent years, thus, impacting future economic policy directions. These results provide a warning to food trade participants as well as governments that focusing on transport market volatility to smooth out food market and economic policy volatility ought to be an important preoccupation, together with increased attention to the potential consequences of global economic policy changes, in order to ensure greater market stability and sustainability in the transportation of food.

Suggested Citation

  • Ling Sun & Wenjing Zhang & Zijiang Hu & Zhong Ning, 2024. "Food security under global economic policy uncertainty: fresh insights from the ocean transportation of food," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(3), pages 414-435, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1057_s41278-023-00282-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41278-023-00282-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41278-023-00282-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41278-023-00282-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Maitra, Debasish & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Oil, natural gas and BRICS stock markets: Evidence of systemic risks and co-movements in the time-frequency domain," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng & Li, Xinran, 2023. "How economic policy uncertainty affects asymmetric spillovers in food and oil prices: Evidence from wavelet analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    4. Han, Yingwei & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of global economic policy uncertainty on portfolio optimization: A Black–Litterman approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Michael S. Haigh & David A. Bessler, 2004. "Causality and Price Discovery: An Application of Directed Acyclic Graphs," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1099-1121, October.
    6. Yordan Leonov & Ventsislav Nikolov, 2012. "A wavelet and neural network model for the prediction of dry bulk shipping indices," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 14(3), pages 319-333, September.
    7. Ted C. Schroeder & Barry K. Goodwin, 1991. "Price discovery and cointegration for live hogs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 685-696, December.
    8. Zhaohua Zhang & Roshini Brizmohun & Gang Li & Ping Wang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-17, March.
    9. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Junguo Hua & Hui Li & Zejun He & Jing Ding & Futong Jin, 2022. "The Microcosmic Mechanism and Empirical Test of Uncertainty on the Non-Linear Fluctuation of Chinese Grain Prices-Based on the Perspective of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Gu, Bingmei & Liu, Jiaguo, 2022. "Determinants of dry bulk shipping freight rates: Considering Chinese manufacturing industry and economic policy uncertainty," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 66-77.
    12. Yuee Li & Jingdong Li, 2021. "How Does China’s Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect the Sustainability of Its Net Grain Imports?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xie, Yutang & Cao, Yujia & Li, Xiaotao, 2023. "The importance of trade policy uncertainty to energy consumption in a changing world," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Junguo Hua & Hui Li & Zejun He & Jing Ding & Futong Jin, 2022. "The Microcosmic Mechanism and Empirical Test of Uncertainty on the Non-Linear Fluctuation of Chinese Grain Prices-Based on the Perspective of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, September.
    3. Mustansar Hayat & Zulfiqar Ali & Basharat Khan & Ayesha Khero, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Performance in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(3), pages 92-101.
    4. Wang, Yilei & Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty respond to the global oil price fluctuations? Evidence from BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Zhang, Jiaming & Xiang, Yitian & Zou, Yang & Guo, Songlin, 2024. "Volatility forecasting of Chinese energy market: Which uncertainty have better performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Electricity market crisis in Europe and cross border price effects: A quantile return connectedness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Su, Chi-Wei & Yang, Shengyao & Ren, Yi-Shuai, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and company stock prices: Empirical evidence from blockchain companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Whelsy Boungou & Alhonita Yatié, 2024. "Uncertainty, stock and commodity prices during the Ukraine-Russia war ," Post-Print hal-04746052, HAL.
    9. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan, 2023. "Natural gas and the utility sector nexus in the U.S.: Quantile connectedness and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    10. Le, Cao Hoang Anh & Shan, Yaowen & Taylor, Stephen, 2024. "International economic policy uncertainty and analysts' earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    11. Xie, Qichang & Bai, Yu & Jia, Nanfei & Xu, Xin, 2024. "Do macroprudential policies reduce risk spillovers between energy markets?: Evidence from time-frequency domain and mixed-frequency methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2023. "Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    14. Hu, Zinan & Borjigin, Sumuya, 2024. "The amplifying role of geopolitical Risks, economic policy Uncertainty, and climate risks on Energy-Stock market volatility spillover across economic cycles," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Bai, Xiwen, 2021. "Tanker freight rates and economic policy uncertainty: A wavelet-based copula approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    16. Zhu, Zhaobo & Lin, Hang & Chen, Min & Han, Peiwen, 2023. "The spillover effect of economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from analyst behaviors in Hong Kong," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Biswas, Priti & Jain, Prachi & Maitra, Debasish, 2024. "Are shocks in the stock markets driven by commodity markets? Evidence from Russia-Ukraine war," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    18. Zhaohua Zhang & Roshini Brizmohun & Gang Li & Ping Wang, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty undermine stability of agricultural imports? Evidence from China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Babaei, Hamid & Hübner, Georges & Muller, Aline, 2023. "The effects of uncertainty on the dynamics of stock market interdependence: Evidence from the time-varying cointegration of the G7 stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Chen, Juan & Xiao, Zuoping & Bai, Jiancheng & Guo, Hongling, 2023. "Predicting volatility in natural gas under a cloud of uncertainties," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:marecl:v:26:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1057_s41278-023-00282-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.