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The impact of global economic policy uncertainty on portfolio optimization: A Black–Litterman approach

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  • Han, Yingwei
  • Li, Jie

Abstract

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on global asset allocation. We employ the Double Asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS (DAGM) model to examine the asymmetric effect of GEPU shocks on long-term volatilities of global equities, bonds, commodities, clean energy and Bitcoin. The GEPU-based volatility is used as a proxy for the uncertainty of the investor’s views in the Black-Litterman (BL) framework. Empirical results show that the BL model with GEPU-based views yields higher out-of-sample risk-adjusted returns than other traditional benchmarks in most cases. The findings suggest that investors should consider the influence of GEPU when making portfolio decisions.

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  • Han, Yingwei & Li, Jie, 2023. "The impact of global economic policy uncertainty on portfolio optimization: A Black–Litterman approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s1057521922004264
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102476
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    3. Lalwani, Vaibhav, 2024. "Incorporating green assets in equity portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
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    8. Ko, Hyungjin & Son, Bumho & Lee, Jaewook, 2024. "A novel integration of the Fama–French and Black–Litterman models to enhance portfolio management," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    9. Ling Sun & Wenjing Zhang & Zijiang Hu & Zhong Ning, 2024. "Food security under global economic policy uncertainty: fresh insights from the ocean transportation of food," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(3), pages 414-435, September.
    10. Xu, Peng, 2024. "Testing out-of-sample portfolio performance using second-order stochastic dominance constrained optimization approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black–Litterman; Portfolio optimization; Asymmetry; GARCH-MIDAS; Economic policy uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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