IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/jorsoc/v66y2015i3p463-475.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yonghan Ju

    (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

  • So Young Sohn

    (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

A technology credit guarantee policy has been established to provide financial support to technology-based SMEs with a limited asset base. For an effective technology credit guarantee policy, risk management is essential. In this paper, we investigate a survival model that predicts start-up SMEs’ loan default probability at a given time based on technology attributes along with the economic environment and the firm’s characteristics at the time of the technology credit guarantee fund application. This, in turn, is used for the estimation of the technology fund risk along with a stress test. Our work is expected to contribute to reducing the risks associated with technology financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2015. "Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 463-475, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:66:y:2015:i:3:p:463-475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v66/n3/pdf/jors201410a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/jors/journal/v66/n3/full/jors201410a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T H Moon & S Y Sohn, 2010. "Technology credit scoring model considering both SME characteristics and economic conditions: The Korean case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(4), pages 666-675, April.
    2. André Stel & Martin Carree & Roy Thurik, 2005. "The Effect of Entrepreneurial Activity on National Economic Growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 311-321, February.
    3. Daniel Roesch & Harald Scheule, 2007. "Stress-testing credit risk parameters: An application to retail loan portfolios," Published Paper Series 2007-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    4. Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Mr. Matthew T Jones & Mr. Graham L Slack, 2004. "Stress Testing Financial Systems: What to Do When the Governor Calls," IMF Working Papers 2004/127, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Fabi, Fabrizio & Laviola, Sebastiano & Marullo Reedtz, Paolo, 2005. "The new Capital Accord and banks' lending decisions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 501-521, October.
    6. Inha Oh & Jeong-Dong Lee & Almas Heshmati & Gyoung-Gyu Choi, 2009. "Evaluation of credit guarantee policy using propensity score matching," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 335-351, October.
    7. Ju, Yong Han & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Updating a credit-scoring model based on new attributes without realization of actual data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 119-126.
    8. Moon, Tae Hee & Sohn, So Young, 2008. "Technology scoring model for reflecting evaluator's perception within confidence limits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(3), pages 981-989, February.
    9. T Bellotti & J Crook, 2009. "Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1699-1707, December.
    10. H J Jeon & S Y Sohn, 2008. "The risk management for technology credit guarantee fund," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(12), pages 1624-1632, December.
    11. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2006. "Internal ratings systems, implied credit risk and the consistency of banks' risk classification policies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1899-1926, July.
    12. J Banasik & J N Crook & L C Thomas, 1999. "Not if but when will borrowers default," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(12), pages 1185-1190, December.
    13. Sohn, So Young & Kim, Hong Sik, 2007. "Random effects logistic regression model for default prediction of technology credit guarantee fund," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 472-478, November.
    14. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
    15. Lee, Hei Wai, 1997. "Post offering earnings performance of firms that issue seasoned equity: The role of growth opportunities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 97-114.
    16. Poh Wong & Yuen Ho & Erkko Autio, 2005. "Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Economic Growth: Evidence from GEM data," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 335-350, January.
    17. So Sohn & Yoon Kim, 2013. "Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 931-943, December.
    18. Marco Sorge, 2004. "Stress-testing financial systems: an overview of current methodologies," BIS Working Papers 165, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jong Wook Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Evaluating borrowers’ default risk with a spatial probit model reflecting the distance in their relational network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Bo Kyeong Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "A Credit Scoring Model for SMEs Based on Accounting Ethics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, September.
    3. Ferreira de Araújo Lima, Priscila & Crema, Maria & Verbano, Chiara, 2020. "Risk management in SMEs: A systematic literature review and future directions," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 78-94.
    4. Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Technology Credit Scoring Based on a Quantification Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    5. Zhao Wang & Cuiqing Jiang & Huimin Zhao, 2022. "Know Where to Invest: Platform Risk Evaluation in Online Lending," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 765-783, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bo Kyeong Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "A Credit Scoring Model for SMEs Based on Accounting Ethics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, September.
    2. Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Technology Credit Scoring Based on a Quantification Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    3. Ju, Yong Han & Sohn, So Young, 2014. "Updating a credit-scoring model based on new attributes without realization of actual data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 119-126.
    4. Ju, Yonghan & Jeon, Song Yi & Sohn, So Young, 2015. "Behavioral technology credit scoring model with time-dependent covariates for stress test," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 910-919.
    5. So Sohn & Yoon Kim, 2013. "Behavioral credit scoring model for technology-based firms that considers uncertain financial ratios obtained from relationship banking," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 931-943, December.
    6. T H Moon & S Y Sohn, 2010. "Technology credit scoring model considering both SME characteristics and economic conditions: The Korean case," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(4), pages 666-675, April.
    7. Kim, Hong Sik & Sohn, So Young, 2010. "Support vector machines for default prediction of SMEs based on technology credit," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 838-846, March.
    8. Petr Jakubik & Christian Schmieder, 2008. "Stress Testing Credit Risk: Is the Czech Republic Different from Germany?," Working Papers 2008/9, Czech National Bank.
    9. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    10. Niklas Elert, 2014. "What determines entry? Evidence from Sweden," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(1), pages 55-92, August.
    11. Galil, Koresh & Varon, Eva, 2024. "National culture and banks stock volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    12. Aparicio, Sebastian & Urbano, David & Audretsch, David, 2016. "Institutional factors, opportunity entrepreneurship and economic growth: Panel data evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 45-61.
    13. AFAWUBO, Komivi & NOGLO, Yawo Agbényégan, 2022. "ICT and entrepreneurship: A comparative analysis of developing, emerging and developed countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    14. Folorunsho M. Ajide & James T. Dada, 2023. "Poverty, entrepreneurship, and economic growth in Africa," Poverty & Public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, June.
    15. Martin Èihák, 2005. "Stress Testing of Banking Systems (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 55(9-10), pages 418-440, September.
    16. Dirick, Lore & Claeskens, Gerda & Vasnev, Andrey & Baesens, Bart, 2022. "A hierarchical mixture cure model with unobserved heterogeneity for credit risk," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 39-55.
    17. T H Moon & Y Kim & S Y Sohn, 2011. "Technology credit rating system for funding SMEs," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(4), pages 608-615, April.
    18. Juan Solorzano-Margain & Serafin Martinez-Jaramillo & Fabrizio Lopez-Gallo, 2013. "Financial contagion: extending the exposures network of the Mexican financial system," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 125-155, June.
    19. Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 2012/053, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Marc Bogdanowicz, 2015. "Digital Entrepreneurship Barriers and Drivers - The need for a specific measurement framework," JRC Research Reports JRC96465, Joint Research Centre.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:66:y:2015:i:3:p:463-475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.