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Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis

Author

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  • Yonghan Ju

    (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

  • So Young Sohn

    (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract

A technology credit guarantee policy has been established to provide financial support to technology-based SMEs with a limited asset base. For an effective technology credit guarantee policy, risk management is essential. In this paper, we investigate a survival model that predicts start-up SMEs’ loan default probability at a given time based on technology attributes along with the economic environment and the firm’s characteristics at the time of the technology credit guarantee fund application. This, in turn, is used for the estimation of the technology fund risk along with a stress test. Our work is expected to contribute to reducing the risks associated with technology financing.

Suggested Citation

  • Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2015. "Stress test for a technology credit guarantee fund based on survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 66(3), pages 463-475, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:66:y:2015:i:3:p:463-475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao Wang & Cuiqing Jiang & Huimin Zhao, 2022. "Know Where to Invest: Platform Risk Evaluation in Online Lending," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 765-783, September.
    2. Ferreira de Araújo Lima, Priscila & Crema, Maria & Verbano, Chiara, 2020. "Risk management in SMEs: A systematic literature review and future directions," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 78-94.
    3. Yonghan Ju & So Young Sohn, 2017. "Technology Credit Scoring Based on a Quantification Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    4. Jong Wook Lee & So Young Sohn, 2021. "Evaluating borrowers’ default risk with a spatial probit model reflecting the distance in their relational network," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(12), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Bo Kyeong Lee & So Young Sohn, 2017. "A Credit Scoring Model for SMEs Based on Accounting Ethics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-15, September.

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