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From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems

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  • Mr. Rodolfo Maino
  • Mr. Kalin I Tintchev

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk+, which uses analytical techniques—similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Kalin I Tintchev, 2012. "From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems," IMF Working Papers 2012/053, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/053
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    References listed on IDEAS

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