IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/genrir/v45y2020i2d10.1057_s10713-020-00054-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Covid-19: implications for insurer risk management and the insurability of pandemic risk

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Richter

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU Munich))

  • Thomas C. Wilson

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU Munich)
    Allianz Ayudhya)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the insurability of pandemic risk and outlines how underwriting policies and scenario analysis are used to build resilience upfront and plan contingency actions for crisis scenarios. It then summarizes the unique “lessons learned” from the Covid-19 crisis by baselining actual developments against a reasonable, pre-Covid-19 pandemic scenario based on the 2002 SARS epidemic and 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. Actual developments support the pre-Covid-19 hypothesis that financial market developments dominate claims losses due to the demographics of pandemics and other factors. However, Covid-19 “surprised” relative to the pre-Covid-19 scenario in terms of its impact on the real economy as well as on the property and casualty segment as business interruption property triggers and exclusions are challenged, something that may adversely impact the insurability of pandemics as well as the perception of the industry for some time to come. The unique lessons of Covid-19 reinforce the need for resilience upfront in solvency and liquidity, the need to improve business interruption wordings and re-underwrite the book, and the recognition that business interruption caused by pandemics may not be an insurable risk due to its large accumulation potential and the threat of external moral hazard. These insurability limitations lead to a discussion about the structure and financing of protection against the impact of future pandemics.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Richter & Thomas C. Wilson, 2020. "Covid-19: implications for insurer risk management and the insurability of pandemic risk," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 45(2), pages 171-199, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:genrir:v:45:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1057_s10713-020-00054-z
    DOI: 10.1057/s10713-020-00054-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s10713-020-00054-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s10713-020-00054-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kartik B. Athreya, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Pursuit of Efficiency," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 23-47.
    2. Paul Raschky & Reimund Schwarze & Manijeh Schwindt & Ferdinand Zahn, 2013. "Uncertainty of Governmental Relief and the Crowding out of Flood Insurance," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 179-200, February.
    3. O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 1997. "Doing It Now or Later," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7t44m5b0, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    4. Loïc Berger, 2014. "The Impact of Ambiguity Prudence on Insurance and Prevention," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Matthew Rabin & Ted O'Donoghue, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March.
    6. Walter T Karten, 1997. "How to Expand the Limits of Insurability*," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 22(4), pages 515-522, October.
    7. Francis X. Diebold & Neil A. Doherty & Richard J. Herring, 2010. "The Known, the Unknown, and the Unknowable in Financial Risk Management: Measurement and Theory Advancing Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9223.
    8. Neil A. Doherty & Christian Laux & Alexander Muermann, 2015. "Insuring Nonverifiable Losses," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 283-316.
    9. MacMinn, Richard & Richter, Andreas, 2018. "The choice of trigger in an insurance linked security: The mortality risk case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 174-182.
    10. Annette Hofmann & Casey Rothschild, 2019. "On the efficiency of self-protection with spillovers in risk," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 44(2), pages 207-221, September.
    11. Martin Nell & Andreas Richter, 2004. "Improving Risk Allocation Through Indexed Cat Bonds," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 29(2), pages 183-201, April.
    12. Rudolf Enz, 2000. "The S-Curve Relation Between Per-Capita Income and Insurance Penetration," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 25(3), pages 396-406, July.
    13. Nell, Martin & Richter, Andreas & Schiller, Jörg, 2009. "When prices hardly matter: Incomplete insurance contracts and markets for repair goods," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 343-354, April.
    14. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    15. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Marc Gürtler & Martin Hibbeln & Christine Winkelvos, 2016. "The Impact of the Financial Crisis and Natural Catastrophes on CAT Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(3), pages 579-612, September.
    17. Lorenzo Casaburi & Jack Willis, 2018. "Time versus State in Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Contract Farming in Kenya," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3778-3813, December.
    18. Cummins, J. David & Doherty, Neil & Lo, Anita, 2002. "Can insurers pay for the "big one"? Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 557-583, March.
    19. Chang, H.-J. & Huang, N. & Lee, C.-H. & Hsu, Y.-J. & Hsieh, C.-J. & Chou, Y.-J., 2004. "The Impact of the SARS Epidemic on the Utilization of Medical Services: SARS and the Fear of SARS," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 94(4), pages 562-564.
    20. David Laibson, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 443-478.
    21. Russell Golman & David Hagmann & George Loewenstein, 2017. "Information Avoidance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(1), pages 96-135, March.
    22. Casaburi, Lorenzo & ,, 2018. "Time vs. State in Insurance: Experimental Evidence from Contract Farming in Kenya," CEPR Discussion Papers 12896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    2. Alex Imas & Sally Sadoff & Anya Samek, 2017. "Do People Anticipate Loss Aversion?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1271-1284, May.
    3. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Della Vigna, Stefano, 2002. "Overestimating Self-Control: Evidence from the Health Club Industry," Research Papers 1880, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    4. Gabriel D. Carroll & James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Optimal Defaults and Active Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1639-1674.
    5. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2003. "Optimal Defaults," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 180-185, May.
    6. Kunte Sebastian, 2020. "The Regional Nudger: Wie Erkenntnisse der Verhaltensökonomie die Regionalpolitik und die politische Praxis auf Länderebene verbessern können," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 69(1), pages 69-87, May.
    7. Maarten van Rooij & Federica Teppa, 2008. "Choice or No Choice: What explains the Attractiveness of Default Options?," DNB Working Papers 165, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Andrew Metrick, 2005. "Passive Decisions and Potent Defaults," NBER Chapters, in: Analyses in the Economics of Aging, pages 59-78, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Erwin Bulte & John A. List & Daan Van Soest, 2019. "Toward an Understanding of the Welfare Effects of Nudges: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Uganda," NBER Working Papers 26286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James J. Choi & Adriana Z. Robertson, 2020. "What Matters to Individual Investors? Evidence from the Horse's Mouth," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(4), pages 1965-2020, August.
    11. Eduard Marinov, 2017. "The 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 117-159.
    12. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2017. "Richard H. Thaler: Integrating Economics with Psychology," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2017-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    13. Linda Thunström, 2019. "Welfare effects of nudges: The emotional tax of calorie menu labeling," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(1), pages 11-25, January.
    14. Schumacher, Heiner, 2016. "Insurance, self-control, and contract flexibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 220-232.
    15. Moseley, Alice & Stoker, Gerry, 2013. "Nudging citizens? Prospects and pitfalls confronting a new heuristic," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 4-10.
    16. Pradiptyo, Rimawan & Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo, 2012. "On The Complexity of Eliminating Fuel Subsidy in Indonesia; A Behavioral Approach," MPRA Paper 40045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. van Rooij, Maarten & Teppa, Federica, 2014. "Personal traits and individual choices: Taking action in economic and non-economic decisions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 33-43.
    18. repec:cup:judgdm:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:11-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Beshears, John & Kosowsky, Harry, 2020. "Nudging: Progress to date and future directions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 161(S), pages 3-19.
    20. Leonhard K. Lades & Liam Delaney, 2024. "Self-control failures, as judged by themselves," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    21. Kemptner, Daniel & Tolan, Songül, 2018. "The role of time preferences in educational decision making," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 25-39.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crisis; Covid-19; Pandemic risk; Resiliency; Insurability; Risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:genrir:v:45:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1057_s10713-020-00054-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.