IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/eurjdr/v36y2024i4d10.1057_s41287-023-00617-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Socio−economic Impact Analysis of the Political Crisis in Burundi with a Focus on Children: A Macro–Micro Framework

Author

Listed:
  • L. Savard

    (Mohammed VI Polytechnic University)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a social and economic impact analysis of the Burundi political crisis (2015 to 2017) accompanied by economic sanctions. We perform our analysis with a macro–micro-simulation framework. We constructed a macro–micro analytical framework that includes a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a micro-simulation (MS) model. This framework allows us to link shocks of a more macroeconomic nature such as reductions in foreign aid, reductions in the supply of public services, on household decomposed to focus the analysis on children. Scenarios were designed and applied to capture the sanctions associated with the crisis and other manifestations of the crisis. The distributional analysis is performed with the standard indices (FGT and Gini), and we innovated by extending our social analysis on five social indicators by combining results from our CGE model and elasticities linking growth and social indicators from the literature. The macroeconomic and sectoral results show significant negative effects on GDP, skilled employment, and unemployment. The social impact analysis carried out with our framework and with observed data shows a very significant negative impact on the five social indicators selected.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Savard, 2024. "A Socio−economic Impact Analysis of the Political Crisis in Burundi with a Focus on Children: A Macro–Micro Framework," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(4), pages 925-956, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:36:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1057_s41287-023-00617-6
    DOI: 10.1057/s41287-023-00617-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41287-023-00617-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41287-023-00617-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. François Bourguignon & Maurizio Bussolo & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2008. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution : Macro-Micro Evaluation Techniques and Tools," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6586.
    2. repec:bla:devpol:v:23:y:2005:i:3:p:313-331 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Huppi, Monika & Ravallion, Martin, 1991. "The sectoral structure of poverty during an adjustment period: Evidence for Indonesia in the mid-1980s," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 19(12), pages 1653-1678, December.
    4. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    5. D. Boccanfuso & L. Savard, 2012. "A Segmented Labour Supply Model Estimation for the Construction of a CGE Microsimulation Model: An Application to the Philippines," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 6(2), pages 211-234, May.
    6. Foster, James & Greer, Joel & Thorbecke, Erik, 1984. "A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 761-766, May.
    7. Dorothee Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard, 2008. "Une analyse d'impacts economique et social des reformes economiques et de l'aide publique au developpement au Mali - Un cadre macro-micro," The European Journal of Development Research, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 519-545.
    8. James B Davies, 2009. "Combining microsimulation with CGE and macro modelling for distributional analysis in developing and transition countries," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 2(1), pages 49-56.
    9. John Cockburn & Hélène Maisonnave & Véronique Robichaud & Luca Tiberti, 2013. "Fiscal Space and Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso," Cahiers de recherche 1308, CIRPEE.
    10. Chia, Ngee-Choon & Wahba, Sadek & Whalley, John, 1994. "Poverty-Reducing Targeting Programmes: A General Equilibrium Approach," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 3(2), pages 309-338, October.
    11. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 1999. "Same Song, Same Refrain? Economic Sanctions in the 1990's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 403-408, May.
    12. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
    13. Baldacci, Emanuele & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Cui, Qiang, 2008. "Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1317-1341, August.
    14. B. Decaluwé & L. Savard & E. Thorbecke, 2005. "General Equilibrium Approach for Poverty Analysis: With an Application to Cameroon," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 17(2), pages 213-243.
    15. José Caetano & Aurora Galego & António Caleiro, 2023. "On the Determinants of Sanctions Effectiveness: An Empirical Analysis by Using Duration Models," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-16, May.
    16. Sébastien Mary, 2018. "How Much Does Economic Growth Contribute to Child Stunting Reductions?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-11.
    18. David Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "The Health and Poverty of Nations: From theory to practice," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 47-71.
    19. Garfield, R. & Santana, S., 1997. "The impact of the economic crisis and the US embargo on health in Cuba," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 87(1), pages 15-20.
    20. Kebede W. Sindu & Belay Fekadu & Dejene Aredo, 2016. "Impact of Trade Liberalization on Poverty in Ethiopia: A Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 109-133.
    21. Gupta, Sanjeev & Verhoeven, Marijn & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2002. "The effectiveness of government spending on education and health care in developing and transition economies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 717-737, November.
    22. Ioana M. PETRESCU, 2016. "The Humanitarian Impact Of Economic Sanctions," Europolity – Continuity and Change in European Governance - New Series, Department of International Relations and European Integration, National University of Political Studies and Public Administration, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41.
    23. Sébastien Mary & Kelsey Shaw & Sergio Gomez y Paloma, 2019. "Does the sectoral composition of growth affect child stunting reductions?," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 37(2), pages 225-244, March.
    24. John Cockburn & Hélène Maisonnave & Véronique Robichaud & Luca Tiberti, 2016. "Fiscal Space and Public Spending on Children in Burkina Faso1 [Burkina Faso. Classification-JEL: I32, D58, C50, O55]," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 9(1), pages 5-23.
    25. Gibbons, E. & Garfield, R., 1999. "The impact of economic sanctions on health and human rights in Haiti, 1991-1994," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 89(10), pages 1499-1504.
    26. Véronique Robichaud & Luca Tiberti & Hélène Maisonnave, 2014. "Impact of increased public education spending on growth and poverty in Uganda. An integrated micro-macro approach," Working Papers MPIA 2014-01, PEP-MPIA.
    27. Daponte, B.O. & Garfield, R., 2000. "The effect of economic sanctions on the mortality of Iraqi children prior to the 1991 Persian Gulf War," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 90(4), pages 546-552.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.
    2. Onialisoa Mirana Rakotoarivelo & Hanitriniaina Sammy Gr´egoire Ravelonirina, 2019. "On the Dynamic of Country Development," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2011. "The Food Crisis and its Impacts on Poverty in Senegal and Mali: Crossed Destinies," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 29(2), pages 211-247, March.
    4. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    5. Yusuke Kamiya, 2010. "Determinants of Health in Developing Countries:Cross-Country Evidence," OSIPP Discussion Paper 10E009, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    6. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Luc Savard, 2005. "Impact Analysis of the Liberalization of Groundnut Production in Senegal: A Multi-household Computable General Equilibrium Model," Cahiers de recherche 05-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    7. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Bernard Decaluwé & Luc Savard, 2008. "Poverty, income distribution and CGE micro-simulation modeling: Does the functional form of distribution matter?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 6(2), pages 149-184, June.
    8. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Massa Coulibaly & Luc Savard & Govinda Timilsina, 2018. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Impacts of Jatropha Based Biodiesel in Mali," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, November.
    9. Dorothée BOCCANFUSO & Massa COULABY & Govinda R TIMILSINA & Luc SAVARD, 2010. "Economic and Distributional Impact of Bio-Fuels in Mali," EcoMod2010 259600032, EcoMod.
    10. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Sanctioned to Death? The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Life Expectancy and its Gender Gap," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 139-162, January.
    11. Simin SEURY, 2009. "Inward Foreign Investment, Corruption and Firm's Ability: Firm-level Evidence from the Transition Economies," EcoMod2009 21500083, EcoMod.
    12. AfDB AfDB, 2007. "Working Paper 91 - Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Africa," Working Paper Series 2224, African Development Bank.
    13. Afesorgbor, S. Kwaku & Kornher, Lukas & Santeramo, Fabio, 2023. "The impacts of economic sanctions on food (prices) security: Evidence from targeted countries," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339511, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    14. Baldacci, Emanuele & Clements, Benedict & Gupta, Sanjeev & Cui, Qiang, 2008. "Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1317-1341, August.
    15. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2009. "Electricity Reforms In Mali: A Macro–Micro Analysis Of The Effects On Poverty And Distribution," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 127-147, March.
    16. Aloosh, Mehdi & Aloosh, Arash, 2023. "Economic sanctions and spread of infectious diseases," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Sedrakyan, Gohar Samvel, 2022. "Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 863-885.
    18. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Véronique Gosselin & Jonathan Goyette & Luc Savard & Clovis Tanekou Mangoua, 2014. "An impact analysis of climate change and adaptation policies on the forestry sector in Quebec. A dynamic macro-micro framework," Cahiers de recherche 14-04, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    19. John Anyanwu & Andrew E. O. Erhijakpor, 2007. "Working Paper 91 - Health Expenditures and Health Outcomes in Africa," Working Paper Series 226, African Development Bank.
    20. Francisco Rodr'iguez, 2022. "Sanctions and Imports of Essential Goods: A Closer Look at the Equipo Anova (2021) Results," Papers 2212.09904, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social impact; Sanctions; CGE model; Microsimulation; Children; Burundi;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:eurjdr:v:36:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1057_s41287-023-00617-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.