IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/buseco/v43y2008i3p23-39.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Aizcorbe

    (Department of Economics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, DC, 20230, USA.)

  • Stephen D Oliner

    (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

  • Daniel E Sichel

    (Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC, 20551, USA.)

Abstract

This paper examines three questions motivated by previous research on semiconductors and productivity growth: Why did semiconductor prices fall so rapidly in the second half of the 1990s? Why has the rate of price decline slowed since 2001? And to what extent are these price swings associated with changes in the rate of advance in semiconductor technology? We show that the price swings are statistically significant and that they reflect changes in both price-cost markups and cost trends. Further analysis indicates that the shift to faster cost declines in the mid-1990s likely corresponded to a speed-up in the pace of advance in semiconductor technology. However, the slower cost declines since 2001 appear not to have been mirrored by a deceleration in technology. Consequently, researchers should be cautious about associating price or cost movements for semiconductors with changes in the pace of underlying technology even over moderately long periods.Business Economics (2008) 43, 23–39; doi:10.2145/20080303

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D Oliner & Daniel E Sichel, 2008. "Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 43(3), pages 23-39, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:23-39
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v43/n3/pdf/be200818a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/be/journal/v43/n3/full/be200818a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Ana Aizcorbe & Samuel Kortum, 2005. "Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(4), pages 603-630, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oliner, Stephen D. & Sichel, Daniel E. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2008. "Explaining a productive decade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 633-673.
    2. Cette, G. & Clerc, C. & Bresson, L., 2015. "Diffusion et contribution à la croissance des TIC aux États-Unis, dans la zone euro et au Royaume-Uni," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 200, pages 83-90.
    3. Gilbert Cette & Jimmy Lopez & Giorgio Presidente & Vincenzo Spiezia, 2019. "Measuring ‘indirect’ investments in ICT in OECD countries," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 348-364, May.
    4. Unni Pillai, 2013. "A Model of Technological Progress in the Microprocessor Industry," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 877-912, December.
    5. Gilbert Cette & Christian Clerc & Lea Bresson, 2015. "Contribution of ICT Diffusion to Labour Productivity Growth: The United States, Canada, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom, 1970-2013," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 81-88, Spring.
    6. Neeraj Pandey & Nikhil Mehta & Shreya Basu Roy, 2017. "Semiconductor Pricing Strategy in USB Market: A Market Leader’s Dilemma," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 5(1), pages 1-10, January.
    7. Gilbert Cette, 2014. "Does ICT Remain a Powerful Engine of Growth," Post-Print hal-01463929, HAL.
    8. Davide Consoli & Francesco Vona & Francesco Rentocchini, 2016. "That was then, this is now: skills and routinization in the 2000s," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 25(5), pages 847-866.
    9. repec:bfr:rueban:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2008. "A Retrospective Look at the U.S. Productivity Growth Resurgence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 3-24, Winter.
    11. Bergeaud, A. & Cette, G. & Lecat, R., 2015. "Productivity trends from 1890 to 2012 in advanced countries," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 07, June..
    12. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2018. "How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 679-702, September.
    13. Antipa, P. & Cette, G. & Frey, L. & Lecat, R. & Vigna, O., 2008. "Recent trends in productivity: structural acceleration in the euro area and deceleration in the United States?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 11, pages 33-50, Spring.
    14. Zoltan Csefalvay, 2019. "What are the policy options? A systematic review of policy responses to the impacts of robotisation and automation on the labour market," JRC Working Papers on Corporate R&D and Innovation 2019-02, Joint Research Centre.
    15. repec:aei:rpaper:37301 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Susan HOUSEMAN, 2007. "Outsourcing, offshoring and productivity measurement in United States manufacturing," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 146(1-2), pages 61-80, March.
    17. Gonzalo Castex & Evgenia Kogan Dechter, 2014. "The Changing Roles of Education and Ability in Wage Determination," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(4), pages 685-710.
    18. Georg Graevenitz & Stefan Wagner & Dietmar Harhoff, 2013. "Incidence and Growth of Patent Thickets: The Impact of Technological Opportunities and Complexity," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 521-563, September.
    19. Antonin Bergeaud & Gilbert Cette & Rémy Lecat, 2016. "Productivity Trends in Advanced Countries between 1890 and 2012," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 420-444, September.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2ajduu0gqt9ho8h2tavbin6ops is not listed on IDEAS
    21. David M. Byrne & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2013. "Is the Information Technology Revolution Over?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 20-36, Spring.
    22. Kenneth Flamm, 2019. "Measuring Moore’s Law: Evidence from Price, Cost, and Quality Indexes," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 403-470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2ajduu0gqt9ho8h2tavbin6ops is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    25. Susan Houseman, 2006. "Outsourcing, Offshoring, and Productivity Measurement in Manufacturing," Upjohn Working Papers 06-130, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    3. J. Cuñado & L. Gil-Alana & F. Gracia, 2009. "US stock market volatility persistence: evidence before and after the burst of the IT bubble," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 233-252, October.
    4. Vincent Dekker & Karsten Schweikert, 2021. "A Comparison of Different Data-driven Procedures to Determine the Bunching Window," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 262-293, March.
    5. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Idoudi, Nadhem & Khalaf, Lynda & Yelou, Clement, 2007. "Finite sample multivariate structural change tests with application to energy demand models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1219-1244, December.
    6. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    7. Garrod Brian & Almeida António & Machado Luiz, 2023. "Modelling of nonlinear asymmetric effects of changes in tourism on economic growth in an autonomous small-island economy," European Journal of Tourism, Hospitality and Recreation, Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 154-172, December.
    8. Shernaz Bodhanwala & Harsh Purohit & Nidhi Choudhary, 2020. "The Causal Dynamics in Indian Agriculture Commodity Prices and Macro-Economic Variables in the Presence of a Structural Break," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(1), pages 241-261, February.
    9. Brown, William Jr. & Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2006. "Volatility in an era of reduced uncertainty: Lessons from Pax Britannica," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 693-707, March.
    10. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    11. Blasques, F. & Francq, Christian & Laurent, Sébastien, 2024. "Autoregressive conditional betas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    12. Luminita Stevens, 2020. "Coarse Pricing Policies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 420-453.
    13. Kumar, Nikeel Nishkar & Patel, Arvind, 2023. "Nonlinear effect of air travel tourism demand on economic growth in Fiji," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 269-289, January.
    15. Karakotsios, Achillefs & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Kroupis, Nikolaos, 2021. "The dynamic linkages between food prices and oil prices. Does asymmetry matter?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    16. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "Structural change tests under heteroskedasticity: Joint estimation versus two‐steps methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 389-411, May.
    17. Altaf Muhammad & Zhang Shuguang, 2015. "Impact Of Structural Shifts on Variance Persistence in Asymmetric Garch Models: Evidence From Emerging Asian and European Markets," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 63(1), pages 57-70, March.
    18. Guo, Zhichao & Feng, Yuanhua, 2013. "Modeling of the impact of the financial crisis and China's accession to WTO on China's exports to Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 474-483.
    19. László KÓNYA, 2023. "Per Capita Income Convergence and Divergence of Selected OECD Countries to and from the US: A Reappraisal for the period 1900-2018," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(1), pages 33-56.
    20. Marcus Box & Karl Gratzer & Xiang Lin, 2020. "Destructive entrepreneurship in the small business sector: bankruptcy fraud in Sweden, 1830–2010," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 437-457, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:buseco:v:43:y:2008:i:3:p:23-39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.