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Are return predictors of industrial equity indexes common across regions?

Author

Listed:
  • Pelin Bengitöz

    (Yasar University)

  • Mehmet Umutlu

    (Edinburgh Napier University
    Yasar University)

Abstract

We investigate the potential cross-sectional relationship between several equity index attributes and future returns on country-industry indexes in the regions of North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, MENA, and Japan. Index attributes include the recently documented predictors in the cross-section of stock or index returns such as return range, maximum and minimum returns in a month, idiosyncratic skewness as well as widely documented predictors at the stock level. Maximum and minimum effects are common for all regions. Return range significantly predicts returns in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and South America after controlling for other index attributes. Standard deviation and idiosyncratic volatility have strong predictive ability in Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, MENA, and Japan. Intermediate term momentum forecasts returns on North American and European portfolios. Earnings-to-price ratio is cross-sectionally linked to returns in Europe. Portfolio sorts show that the predictive power of significant index attributes increases with decreasing index size.

Suggested Citation

  • Pelin Bengitöz & Mehmet Umutlu, 2023. "Are return predictors of industrial equity indexes common across regions?," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(5), pages 396-418, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:24:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1057_s41260-023-00313-4
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-023-00313-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return predictability; International portfolio management; Industrial equity indexes; Cross-section of index returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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