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Modelling and trading the English stock market with novelty optimization techniques

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  • Andreas Karathanasopoulos

Abstract

The scope for this paper is to introduce short term adaptive models to trade the FTSE100 index. There are five major innovations on this paper which include the introduction of an input selection criteria when utilising an expansive universe of inputs, adaptive sliding window modelling, a hybrid combination of PSO and RBF algorithms, the application of a PSO algorithm to a traditional ARMA model, and finally the introduction of a multi-objective algorithm to optimise statistical and trading performance when trading an equity index.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Modelling and trading the English stock market with novelty optimization techniques," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 50-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:ove:journl:aid:11075
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    File URL: https://reunido.uniovi.es/index.php/EBL/article/view/11075
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andreas Karatahansopoulos & Georgios Sermpinis & Jason Laws & Christian Dunis, 2014. "Modelling and Trading the Greek Stock Market with Gene Expression and Genetic Programing Algorithms," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 596-610, December.
    2. Bennell, J. & Sutcliffe, C., 2000. "Black-Scholes Versus Neural Networks in Pricing FTSE 100 Options," Papers 00-156, University of Southampton - Department of Accounting and Management Science.
    3. Teo Jasic & Douglas Wood, 2004. "The profitability of daily stock market indices trades based on neural network predictions: case study for the S&P 500, the DAX, the TOPIX and the FTSE in the period 1965-1999," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 285-297.
    4. Charalampos Stasinakis & Georgios Sermpinis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Andreas Karathanasopoulos, 2016. "Forecasting US Unemployment with Radial Basis Neural Networks, Kalman Filters and Support Vector Regressions," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 569-587, April.
    5. Sermpinis, Georgios & Theofilatos, Konstantinos & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Georgopoulos, Efstratios F. & Dunis, Christian, 2013. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial-basis functions and Particle Swarm Optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 225(3), pages 528-540.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Theofilatos, Konstantinos & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2015. "Modeling, forecasting and trading the EUR exchange rates with hybrid rolling genetic algorithms—Support vector regression forecast combinations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 247(3), pages 831-846.
    8. Georgios Vasilakis & Konstantinos Theofilatos & Efstratios Georgopoulos & Andreas Karathanasopoulos & Spiros Likothanassis, 2013. "A Genetic Programming Approach for EUR/USD Exchange Rate Forecasting and Trading," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 415-431, December.
    9. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
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    Cited by:

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