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Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning

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  • Totti Könnölä
  • Ahti Salo
  • Cristiano Cagnin
  • Vicente Carabias
  • Eeva Vilkkumaa

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss key issues in harnessing horizon scanning to shape systemic policies, particularly in the light of the foresight exercise 'Facing the future: Time for the EU to meet global challenges' which was carried out for the Bureau of European Policy Advisors. This exercise illustrates how horizon scanning can enable collective sense-making processes which assist in the identification of emerging signals and policy issues; the synthesis of such issues into encompassing clusters; and the interpretation of resulting clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures. In order to achieve such objectives, horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues. Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Copyright The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Totti Könnölä & Ahti Salo & Cristiano Cagnin & Vicente Carabias & Eeva Vilkkumaa, 2012. "Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 222-231, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:scippl:v:39:y:2012:i:2:p:222-231
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/scipol/scs021
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karel Haegeman & Nicholas Harrap & John Mark Boden & Nida Kamil Özbolat, 2013. "NETWATCH Policy Brief Series Brief Nº3 - Added value of transnational research programming: lessons from longstanding programme collaborations in Europe," JRC Research Reports JRC82303, Joint Research Centre.
    2. Totti Könnölä & Karel Haegeman, 2012. "Embedding foresight in transnational research programming," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 191-207, March.
    3. Zsuzsanna Géring & Gábor Király & Réka Tamássy, 2021. "Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    4. Tapinos, E. & Pyper, N., 2018. "Forward looking analysis: Investigating how individuals ‘do’ foresight and make sense of the future," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 292-302.
    5. Solène Guenat & Phil Purnell & Zoe G. Davies & Maximilian Nawrath & Lindsay C. Stringer & Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu & Muniyandi Balasubramanian & Erica E. F. Ballantyne & Bhuvana Kolar Bylappa & Bei Ch, 2022. "Meeting sustainable development goals via robotics and autonomous systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. K. Matthias Weber & Jennifer Cassingena Harper & Totti Könnölä & Vicente Carabias Barceló, 2012. "Coping with a fast-changing world: Towards new systems of future-oriented technology analysis," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 153-165, February.
    7. Karel Haegeman & Mark Boden & Totti Konnola, 2012. "Challenges in transnational research programming: the role of NETWATCH," JRC Research Reports JRC71938, Joint Research Centre, revised Aug 2012.
    8. Pouru, Laura & Dufva, Mikko & Niinisalo, Tarja, 2019. "Creating organisational futures knowledge in Finnish companies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 84-91.

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