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Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes

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  • Bessler, Wolfgang
  • Blake, David
  • Lückoff, Peter
  • Tonks, Ian

Abstract

This paper investigates the reasons for the lack of long-term persistence in the investment performance of actively managed equity mutual funds. We document that the responses of investors, fund managers, and investment management companies to past performance have an important impact on future performance. Conditioning on fund flows and manager changes allows us to predict future performance of both past outperforming (winner) and past underperforming (loser) funds. Recent winner funds, experiencing neither high inflows nor the departure of a skilled fund manager, outperform by 3.60 percentage points based on risk-adjusted returns in the following year, relative to winner funds suffering from both effects. We also find that the performance of the worst performing funds experiencing both the replacement of the fund manager (internal governance) and high outflows (external governance) enjoy a subsequent increase in performance of 2.40 percentage points in the following year, relative to loser funds not experiencing these effects. Among loser funds, in particular, both mechanisms appear to interact strongly.

Suggested Citation

  • Bessler, Wolfgang & Blake, David & Lückoff, Peter & Tonks, Ian, 2010. "Why does mutual fund performance not persist? The impact and interaction of fund flows and manager changes," MPRA Paper 34185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34185
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    Cited by:

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    2. Paulo Rogério Faustino Matos & Christiano Modesto Penna & Ana Balbina Gomes Silva, 2015. "Mutual Investments Funds in Shares in Brazil: Incentives, Management and Convergence," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(2), pages 110-144, March.
    3. Ariadna Dumitrescu & Javier Gil-Bazo, 2015. "Familiarity and competition: the case of mutual funds," Economics Working Papers 1474, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    5. Clare, Andrew & Motson, Nick & Sapuric, Svetlana & Todorovic, Natasa, 2014. "What impact does a change of fund manager have on mutual fund performance?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 167-177.
    6. Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & Thomas, Dylan C., 2014. "Performance and performance persistence of UK closed-end equity funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 189-199.
    7. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.
    8. Abhay Kaushik, 2012. "The impact of flow of funds and management style on abnormal performance," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(5), pages 327-338, October.
    9. Dumitrescu, Ariadna & Gil-Bazo, Javier, 2018. "Market frictions, investor sophistication, and persistence in mutual fund performance," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 40-59.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual Funds; Performance Persistence; Fund Flows; Manager Turnover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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