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Suppressed Negative Information and Future Underperformance

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  • Anna Scherbina

Abstract

I present evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that negative information withheld by securities analysts is incorporated in stock prices with a significant delay. I estimate the extent of the withheld negative information based on the proportion of analysts who stop revising their annual earnings forecasts. This measure predicts negative earnings surprises and negative price reaction around earnings announcements. It could also be used to generate profitable trading strategies. I show that institutions tend to sell their stock holdings as my measure of unreported negative news increases, thus ameliorating the mispricing. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Scherbina, 2008. "Suppressed Negative Information and Future Underperformance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 533-565.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:12:y:2008:i:3:p:533-565
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles: A Selective Survey," IMF Working Papers 2013/045, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Bryan Kelly & Alexander Ljungqvist, 2012. "Testing Asymmetric-Information Asset Pricing Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1366-1413.
    3. Marco Navone & Fernando Zapatero, 2014. "Why Do Financial Analysts Strive to Be Irrelevant? Career Concerns and Endogenous Coverage Termination," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1507, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Jaideep Chowdhury & Gokhan Sonaer & Umut Celiker, 2018. "Market share growth and stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 97-129, November.
    5. Leippold, Markus & Lohre, Harald, 2014. "The dispersion effect in international stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 331-342.
    6. Berkman, Henk & Dimitrov, Valentin & Jain, Prem C. & Koch, Paul D. & Tice, Sheri, 2009. "Sell on the news: Differences of opinion, short-sales constraints, and returns around earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 376-399, June.
    7. Ashour, Samar & Hao, (Grace) Qing, 2019. "Do analysts really anchor? Evidence from credit risk and suppressed negative information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 183-197.
    8. Philippot, Aurélien, 2018. "Analysts’ reinitiations of coverage and market underreaction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 208-220.
    9. Charles G. Ham & Zachary R. Kaplan & Zawadi R. Lemayian, 2022. "Rationalizing forecast inefficiency," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 313-343, March.
    10. Lee, Charles M.C. & So, Eric C., 2017. "Uncovering expected returns: Information in analyst coverage proxies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 331-348.
    11. Chuan-Yang Hwang & Yuan Li, 2018. "Analysts’ Reputational Concerns, Self-Censoring, and the International Dispersion Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 2289-2307, May.
    12. Hwang, Chuan-Yang & Wong, Kit Pong & Yi, Long, 2022. "What explains the dispersion effect? Evidence from institutional ownership," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Lipson, Marc L. & Mortal, Sandra & Schill, Michael J., 2011. "On the Scope and Drivers of the Asset Growth Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(6), pages 1651-1682, December.
    14. Edoardo Gaffeo, 2013. "Using information markets in grantmaking. An assessment of the issues involved and an application to Italian banking foundations," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/08, Department of Economics and Management.
    15. Jiang, Hao & Li, Sophia Zhengzi & Wang, Hao, 2021. "Pervasive underreaction: Evidence from high-frequency data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 573-599.
    16. Johannes M. Lehner & David McMillan, 2015. "Making sense in asset markets: Strategies for Implicit Organizations," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1024022-102, December.
    17. Wang, Ying & Liu, Zisen, 2024. "Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    18. Anna Scherbina & Bernd Schlusche, 2012. "Asset Bubbles: an Application to Residential Real Estate," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 464-491, June.
    19. Andrew Y. Chen & Tom Zimmermann, 2022. "Open Source Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 11(2), pages 207-264, May.
    20. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.
    21. Yun Ke & Kin Lo & Jinfei Sheng & Jenny Li Zhang, 2023. "Do investors affect financial analysts’ behavior? Evidence from short sellers," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 199-224, March.
    22. Ling Cen & K. C. John Wei & Liyan Yang, 2017. "Disagreement, Underreaction, and Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1214-1231, April.
    23. Choi, Insu & Lee, Myounggu & Kim, Hyejin & Kim, Woo Chang, 2023. "Elucidating Directed Statistical Dependencies: Investigating Global Financial Market Indices' Influence on Korean Short Selling Activities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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