IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v70y2024ipas0275531924001387.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Ying
  • Liu, Zisen

Abstract

In this study, we investigate whether unpleasant mood caused by air pollution leads to lower analyst forecast optimism. Using a sample of 103,768 observations from 2014 to 2021, we show that there is a negative association between air pollution and analyst forecast optimism. Furthermore, we find that analysts become more optimistic forecasters after moving to a city with lower level of air pollution. Our results hold through various robustness tests including alternative measures of air pollution, controlling for various fixed effects, 2SLS by instrumenting for air pollution using thermal inversions and a placebo test by randomizing the headquarter locations of brokerage firms in our sample. Our paper provides plausibly causal evidence that air pollution lowers analyst forecast optimism.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Ying & Liu, Zisen, 2024. "Under the dome: Air pollution and analyst forecast optimism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:70:y:2024:i:pa:s0275531924001387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102345
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531924001387
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102345?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Wu, Qinin & Lu, Jing, 2020. "Air pollution, individual investors, and stock pricing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 267-287.
    3. Patricia M. Dechow & Amy P. Hutton & Richard G. Sloan, 2000. "The Relation between Analysts' Forecasts of Long†Term Earnings Growth and Stock Price Performance Following Equity Offerings," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, March.
    4. Tom Y. Chang & Joshua Graff Zivin & Tal Gross & Matthew Neidell, 2019. "The Effect of Pollution on Worker Productivity: Evidence from Call Center Workers in China," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 151-172, January.
    5. Chhaochharia, Vidhi & Kim, Dasol & Korniotis, George M. & Kumar, Alok, 2019. "Mood, firm behavior, and aggregate economic outcomes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 427-450.
    6. Eva Arceo & Rema Hanna & Paulina Oliva, 2016. "Does the Effect of Pollution on Infant Mortality Differ Between Developing and Developed Countries? Evidence from Mexico City," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 257-280, March.
    7. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    8. Anna Scherbina, 2008. "Suppressed Negative Information and Future Underperformance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(3), pages 533-565.
    9. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    10. Cowen, Amanda & Groysberg, Boris & Healy, Paul, 2006. "Which types of analyst firms are more optimistic?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 119-146, April.
    11. Xin Zhang & Xun Zhang & Yuehua Liu & Xintong Zhao & Xi Chen, 2023. "The morbidity costs of air pollution through the Lens of Health Spending in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1269-1292, July.
    12. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    13. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-479, June.
    14. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Alok Kumar & Qin Wang, 2015. "Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 73-111.
    15. Janet Currie, 2011. "Inequality at Birth: Some Causes and Consequences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1-22, May.
    16. Dong, Rui & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang & Xu, Nianhang, 2021. "Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 971-984.
    17. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou‐Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, September.
    18. Terence Lim, 2001. "Rationality and Analysts' Forecast Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 369-385, February.
    19. Mola, Simona & Guidolin, Massimo, 2009. "Affiliated mutual funds and analyst optimism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 108-137, July.
    20. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, April.
    21. Yuk Ying Chang & Wei‐Huei Hsu, 2018. "The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Testing which Behavioral Biases Affect Analyst Forecasts," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 637-688, December.
    22. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    23. Levy, Tamir & Yagil, Joseph, 2011. "Air pollution and stock returns in the US," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 374-383, June.
    24. Ed Dehaan & Joshua Madsen & Joseph D. Piotroski, 2017. "Do Weather‐Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 509-550, June.
    25. Alok Kumar, 2010. "Self‐Selection and the Forecasting Abilities of Female Equity Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 393-435, May.
    26. Li, Chao Kevin & Luo, Jin-hui & Soderstrom, Naomi S., 2020. "Air pollution and analyst information production," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    27. Wright, William F. & Bower, Gordon H., 1992. "Mood effects on subjective probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 276-291, July.
    28. Paul Hribar & John McInnis, 2012. "Investor Sentiment and Analysts' Earnings Forecast Errors," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 293-307, February.
    29. SANJEEV BHOJRAJ & PAUL HRIBAR & MARC PICCONI & JOHN McINNIS, 2009. "Making Sense of Cents: An Examination of Firms That Marginally Miss or Beat Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2361-2388, October.
    30. O'Brien, Patricia C. & Tan, Hongping, 2015. "Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 41-59.
    31. Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
    32. Wu, Junfeng & Liu, Baohua & Chang, Samuel & Chan, Kam C., 2022. "Effects of air pollution on accounting conservatism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    33. Huyghebaert, Nancy & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Bias in the post-IPO earnings forecasts of affiliated analysts: Evidence from a Chinese natural experiment," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 486-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Dong, Rui & Fisman, Raymond & Wang, Yongxiang & Xu, Nianhang, 2021. "Air pollution, affect, and forecasting bias: Evidence from Chinese financial analysts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 971-984.
    3. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    4. Régis BRETON & Sébastien GALANTI & Christophe HURLIN & Anne-Gaël VAUBOURG, 2011. "Does the firm-analyst relationship matter in explaining analysts' earnings forecast errors?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 469, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    5. Anne-Gael Vaubourg & Valdete Berisha-Krasniqui & Sébastien Galanti & Christophe Hurlin & Régis Breton, 2013. "We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS," Larefi Working Papers 1304, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.
    6. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Roy, Suvra & Nguyen, Harvey & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2023. "Be nice to the air: Severe haze pollution and mutual fund risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    8. Mei-Chen Lin & J. Jimmy Yang, 2023. "Do lottery characteristics matter for analysts’ forecast behavior?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1057-1091, October.
    9. Hu, Jun & Long, Wenbin & Luo, Le & Peng, Yuanhuai, 2021. "Share pledging and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    10. Chen, Xin, 2021. "Lunar eclipses, analyst sentiment, and earnings forecasts: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1007-1024.
    11. Beyer, Anne & Cohen, Daniel A. & Lys, Thomas Z. & Walther, Beverly R., 2010. "The financial reporting environment: Review of the recent literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 296-343, December.
    12. Li, Shi & Wu, Chaopeng & Yang, Shijie, 2021. "Affiliated block shareholders and analyst optimism," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Wu, Yanran & Liu, Tingting & Han, Liyan & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecasts: Does investor sentiment matter in China?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 147-163.
    14. K. Hung Chan & Ray R. Wang & Ruixin Wang, 2021. "The Macbeth Factor: The Dark Side of Achievement‐driving Analysts," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(2), pages 325-361, June.
    15. Zhang, Chao & Shrider, David G. & Han, Dun & Wu, Yanran, 2022. "Accurate forecasts attract clients; Biased forecasts keep them happy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    16. Horton, Joanne & Serafeim, George & Wu, Shan, 2017. "Career concerns of banking analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 231-252.
    17. Altınkılıç, Oya & Balashov, Vadim S. & Hansen, Robert S., 2019. "Investment bank monitoring and bonding of security analysts’ research," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 98-119.
    18. Chen, Xiao & Guo, Gangxing, 2024. "Air pollution and online lender behavior: Evidence from Chinese peer-to-peer lending," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    19. Tristan Roger, 2018. "The coverage assignments of financial analysts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 651-673, September.
    20. Brown, Anna Bergman & Lin, Guoyu & Zhou, Aner, 2022. "Analysts’ forecast optimism: The effects of managers’ incentives on analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:70:y:2024:i:pa:s0275531924001387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.