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Forecasting Vector Autoregressions with Bayesian Priors

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  • David A. Bessler
  • John L. Kling

Abstract

The paper explores the justification for, and application of, Bayesian priors in forecasting a vector autoregression. A nonsymmetric, random-walk prior outperforms three alternative time-series representations in forecasting five series of the U.S. hog market.

Suggested Citation

  • David A. Bessler & John L. Kling, 1986. "Forecasting Vector Autoregressions with Bayesian Priors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 144-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:68:y:1986:i:1:p:144-151.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1241659
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Colino, Evelyn V. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2008. "How Much Can Outlook Forecasts be Improved? An Application to the U.S. Hog Market," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37620, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    2. Gutierrez, Luciano & Piras, Francesco & Olmeo, Maria Grazia, 2015. "Forecasting Wheat Commodity Prices using a Global Vector Autoregressive model," 2015 Fourth Congress, June 11-12, 2015, Ancona, Italy 207264, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    3. Alavalapati, Janaki R.R. & Luckert, Martin K. & Adamowicz, Wiktor L., 1994. "Short-Run Dynamics of the Canadian Wood Pulp Industry: A Vector Autoregression Analysis," Staff Paper Series 232562, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    4. Moss, Charles B. & Shonkwiler, J. S., 1988. "EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT PAYMENTS TO FARMERS ON REAL AGRICULTURAL ASSET VALUES IN THE 1980s," 1988 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Knoxville, Tennessee 270284, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Duangnate, Kannika & Mjelde, James W., 2017. "Comparison of data-rich and small-scale data time series models generating probabilistic forecasts: An application to U.S. natural gas gross withdrawals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 411-423.
    6. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Chew Lian Chua, 2010. "Forecasting Australian Macroeconomic Variables Using A Large Dataset," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 44-59, March.
    7. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "An Application Of Bayesian Vector Autoregression To The U.S. Turkey Market," Staff Papers 13982, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    8. Moss, Charles B. & Shonkwiler, John Scott & Reynolds, John E., 1989. "Government Payments To Farmers And Real Agricultural Asset Values In The 1980s," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Chen, Dean T. & Bessler, David A., 1990. "Forecasting monthly cotton price: Structural and time series approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 103-113.
    10. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "Short-run price forecast performance of individual and composite models for 496 corn cash markets," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(14), pages 2593-2620, October.
    11. Duncan, Steven Scott, 1988. "The relevant forecast of variance of income for marketing decisions under uncertainty," ISU General Staff Papers 198801010800009839, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Park, Timothy A., 1990. "Forecast Evaluation For Multivariate Time-Series Models: The U.S. Cattle Market," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, July.
    13. Joohun Han & John N. Ng’ombe, 2023. "The relation between wheat, soybean, and hemp acreage: a Bayesian time series analysis," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "A Beginner'S Guide To Vector Autoregression," Staff Papers 13527, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    15. Ronald A. Babula & David A. Bessler & Gerald E. Schluter, 1991. "Corn|broiler price transmissions and structural change since the 1950s," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 269-284.
    16. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the total market value of a shares traded in the Shenzhen stock exchange via the neural network," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1266-1279.
    17. Zapata, Hector O. & Garcia, Philip, 1990. "Price Forecasting With Time-Series Methods And Nonstationary Data: An Application To Monthly U.S. Cattle Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, July.
    18. Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Lai, Yue, 1997. "Cointegration Between Prices of Pecans and Other Edible Nuts: Forecasting and Implications," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35870, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Xiaojie Xu & Yun Zhang, 2023. "Coking coal futures price index forecasting with the neural network," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 36(2), pages 349-359, June.

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