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Government Payments to Farmers and Real Agricultural Asset Values in the 1980s

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  • Moss, Charles B.
  • Shonkwiler, J.S.
  • Reynolds, John E.

Abstract

This study determines the effect of government payments on real agricultural asset values using Bayesian vector autoregression. In developing the empirical model, special attention is focused on the informational content of government payments. The results indicate that government payments to farmers have little effect on real asset values in the long run. In the short run, an increase in government payments to farmers may be associated with decline in asset values.

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  • Moss, Charles B. & Shonkwiler, J.S. & Reynolds, John E., 1989. "Government Payments to Farmers and Real Agricultural Asset Values in the 1980s," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 139-153, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:21:y:1989:i:02:p:139-153_00
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    1. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
    2. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Portfolio Choice, and Prices of Land and Corporate Stock," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 229-242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Moss, Charles B. & Baker, Timothy G. & Brorsen, B. Wade, 1987. "Effects Of The Macroeconomic Environment On Agricultural Prices In The Early 1980s," 1987 Regional Committee NC-161, October 6-7, 1987, Denver, Colorado 127294, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    6. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    7. David A. Bessler & John L. Kling, 1986. "Forecasting Vector Autoregressions with Bayesian Priors," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 144-151.
    8. Allen M. Featherstone & Timothy G. Baker, 1987. "An Examination of Farm Sector Real Asset Dynamics: 1910–85," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(3), pages 532-546.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mishra, Ashok K. & Moss, Charles B. & Erickson, Kenneth W., 2004. "Effect Of Debt Solvency On Farmland Values: A Panel Cointegration Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20261, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Patton, Myles & Kostov, Philip & McErlean, Seamus & Moss, Joan, 2008. "Assessing the influence of direct payments on the rental value of agricultural land," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 397-405, October.
    3. Weerahewa, Jeevika & Meilke, Karl D. & Vyn, Richard J. & Haq, Zahoor Ul, 2008. "The Determinants of Farmland Values in Canada," Working Papers 43461, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.
    4. Moss, Charles B. & Pagano, Amy P. & Boggess, William G., 1994. "Ex Ante Modeling Of The Effect Of Irreversibility And Uncertainty On Citrus Investments," 1994 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses Risk, Technical Committee Meeting, March 24-26, 1994, Gulf Shores State Park, Alabama 271559, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.

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