IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nsr/niesra/i14y2024p7-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom

Author

Listed:
  • Paula Bejarano Carbo
  • Hailey Low
  • Ben Caswell
  • Stephen Millard
  • Monica George Michail
  • Max Mosley

Abstract

As we enter 2024, it looks like the UK economy is recovering after the slight falls in GDP in the third and fourth quarters of 2023: 0.1 and 0.3 per cent, respectively. That said, the overall picture of low growth in the United Kingdom, which – barring the bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic – we have seen for much of the past decade, continues. Momentum remains weak as the war in Ukraine continues and recent events in the Middle East have raised the possibility of a wider conflict involving Israel and Iran. The UK labour market continues to loosen, with vacancies falling and unemployment rising, while high inactivity on account of long-term sickness remains an issue. On the bright side, the aggressive policy rate hikes have resulted in inflation falling close to target (and likely below target in the second quarter of 2024) and, as a result, real incomes continue to rise as wage inflation remains higher than price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Bejarano Carbo & Hailey Low & Ben Caswell & Stephen Millard & Monica George Michail & Max Mosley, 2024. "UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 14, pages 7-47.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:14:y:2024:p:7-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.niesr.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/UK-Economic-Outlook-Spring-2024.pdf?ver=cCJd8w3xFqJgLcijdhTg
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Vavra & Erik Hurst & Andreas Fuster & Martin Beraja, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Anna Stansbury & Dan Turner & Ed Balls, 2023. "Tackling the UK’s regional economic inequality: binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3-4), pages 318-356, August.
    3. Philip McCann, 2020. "Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 256-267, February.
    4. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(4), pages 41-44.
    5. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 4, pages 41-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Caswell, Ben & Robyn Smith & Szendrei, Tibor, 2024. "Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 51-87.
    2. Pabst, Adrian, 2024. "Foreward," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 3-4.
    3. Niesr, 2024. "National Institute UK Economic Outlook Winter 2024 – Summary," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 5-50.
    4. Francisco Sebastian, 2024. "Box A: Implications of the transition from Defined Benefit to Defined Contribution pensions in the UK," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 29-33.
    5. Bill Wells, 2024. "Box B: Job boom or job bust? The effect of the pandemic on actual and measured job and employment growth," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 36-41.
    6. Niesr, 2024. "Forecast tables," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 88-96.
    7. Jack Shaw, 2024. "Box C: The state of local government finances," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 13, pages 79-83.
    8. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Pabst, Adrian & Mosley, Max & Szendrei, Tibor, 2023. "Outlook for UK Households, the Devolved Nations and the English Regions," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 10, pages 44-64.
    9. Niesr, 2023. "Forecast tables," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 77-85.
    10. Niesr, 2023. "National Institute UK Economic Outlook Autumn 2023," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 5-40.
    11. Pabst, Adrian, 2023. "Foreward," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 3-4.
    12. Adam Yousef, 2023. "Box B: Productivity Paradox: Challenges and Opportunities," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 66-73.
    13. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2023. "Box A: Public Confidence in the Bank of England," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 12, pages 16-22.
    14. Martin Henning & Hans Westlund & Kerstin Enflo, 2023. "Urban–rural population changes and spatial inequalities in Sweden," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 878-892, May.
    15. Manfred M. Fischer & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Petra Staufer‐Steinnocher, 2021. "The Dynamic Impact of Monetary Policy on Regional Housing Prices in the United States," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1039-1068, December.
    16. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Neil Lee & Cornelius Lipp, 2021. "Golfing with Trump. Social capital, decline, inequality, and the rise of populism in the US," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 14(3), pages 457-481.
    17. Bauluz, Luis & Bukowski, Pawel & Fransham, Mark & Lee, Annie Seong & López Forero, Margarita & Novokmet, Filip & Breau, Sébastien & Lee, Neil & Malgouyres, Clément & Schularick, Moritz & Verdugo, Greg, 2023. "Spatial wage inequality in North America and Western Europe: changes between and within local labour markets 1975-2019," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    19. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment," Staff Working Papers 18-6, Bank of Canada.
    20. Andres Rodriguez-Pose & Javier Terrero-Davila & Neil Lee, 2023. "Left-behind vs. unequal places: interpersonal inequality, economic decline, and the rise of populism in the US and Europe," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2306, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2023.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:14:y:2024:p:7-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Library & Information Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.