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UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom

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Listed:
  • Paula Bejarano Carbo
  • Hailey Low
  • Leaza McSorley
  • Stephen Millard
  • Patel, Urvish
  • Whyte, Kemar

Abstract

In the period between our autumn and winter forecasts the UK economic outlook has somewhat stabilised. This is in part due a return to economic orthodoxy. Chancellor Hunt delivered an Autumn Statement on 17 November based, as convention, on Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts and His Majesty's Treasury (HMT) financial costings. A demonstration that the UK Government is once again willing to work with, rather than rally against, our economic institutions. Compared to recent economic turmoil the intervening few months have appeared calm, with a better than forecast outturn in monthly GDP suggesting that the economy will grow in the fourth quarter of 2022, keeping the United Kingdom out of a 'technical recession', record low unemployment, and the Bank of England moderating slightly on its pessimistic November forecast. As noted in our recent GDP Tracker (Bejarano Carbo and Nowinska 2022) we now expect GDP to grow by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022 relative to the third quarter. However, is this apparent period of calm a lull before another economic storm?

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Bejarano Carbo & Hailey Low & Leaza McSorley & Stephen Millard & Patel, Urvish & Whyte, Kemar, 2023. "UK Economic Outlook: The Macroeconomic Outlook for the United Kingdom," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 9, pages 6-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesra:i:9:y:2023:p:6-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph Vavra & Erik Hurst & Andreas Fuster & Martin Beraja, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Anna Stansbury & Dan Turner & Ed Balls, 2023. "Tackling the UK’s regional economic inequality: binding constraints and avenues for policy intervention," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3-4), pages 318-356, August.
    3. Philip McCann, 2020. "Perceptions of regional inequality and the geography of discontent: insights from the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 256-267, February.
    4. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(4), pages 41-44.
    5. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Szendrei, Tibor, 2021. "Box E: Distributional impacts of Covid-19 and potential for policy intervention," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, issue 4, pages 41-44.
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