IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nrb/journl/v29y2017i2p50.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimation of Aggregate Consumption Function for Nepal: ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Arbind Chaudhary

    (Researcher at Shodhashala Centre for Research and Policy Studies, Baluwatar, Kathmandu)

Abstract

The relationship between aggregate consumption and its determinants is one of the oldest statistical regularities of macroeconomics. It is important for macroeconomists, policy makers and for others as well. This study aims to estimate aggregate consumption function for Nepal employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the period of 1975 to 2015 using real income, real exchange rate, real interest rate and inflation rate as determinants. ARDL based co-integration analysis finds the existence of long run association among the variables. Furthermore, elasticity coefficient of real income is found significantly positive but the coefficients of other variables are negative. There exists inverse relationship between real depreciation of domestic currency and real consumption in the long run, but short run shows positive relation between them. The long run as well as short run dynamics of the model are significantly stable. Hence, income is a robust determinant of aggregate consumption. Real interest rate seems to generate substitution effects on consumption, and inflation rate evokes real balance effect on the aggregate consumption of Nepal further

Suggested Citation

  • Arbind Chaudhary, 2017. "Estimation of Aggregate Consumption Function for Nepal: ARDL Bound Testing Approach," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 29(2), pages 50-65, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:50
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2019/12/4.Estimation20180206.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    3. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    6. Devereux, Michael B. & Smith, Gregor W. & Yetman, James, 2012. "Consumption and real exchange rates in professional forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 33-42.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    9. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    10. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
    11. Bierens, Herman J., 1984. "Model specification testing of time series regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 323-353, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doku, James Ntiamoah & Dziwornu, Raymond K. & Agbanyo, Richard & Awuletey, Joyce Owusuaa, 2022. "Loan syndication and cocoa production: Evidence from Ghana," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2), June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1992. "Do consumers behave as the life-cycle/permanent-income theory of consumption predicts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 3-14.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    5. Miguel Ángel Mendoza González, 2020. "Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 21-58, May.
    6. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 81-89, May.
    7. Takala, Kari, 1995. "Permanent income hypothesis and saving in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1995, Bank of Finland.
    8. Clancy, Daragh & Cussen, Mary & Lydon, Reamonn, 2014. "Housing Market Activity and Consumption: Macro and Micro Evidence," Research Technical Papers 13/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    11. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno & Seonghoon Cho, 2012. "The Deaton paradox in a long memory context with structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3309-3322, September.
    12. Yulei Luo & William T. Smith & Heng-fu Zou, 2009. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Excess Smoothness," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 10(2), pages 281-301, November.
    13. Palm, F.C. & Winder, C.C.A., 1986. "The stochastic life cycle consumption model : theoretical results and empirical evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0016, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    14. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:43:y:2012:i:5:p:5-20 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Wu, Cheng, 2017. "Does Clower’s Dual-Decision Hypothesis lead to the change in saving conclusion in Keynes’s General Theory?," MPRA Paper 82120, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Becker, Torbjorn, 1997. "An investigation of Ricardian equivalence in a common trends model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 405-431, August.
    17. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2001. "Una Revisión del COmportamiento y de los determinantes del ahorro en el mundo," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Felipe Morandé & Rodrigo Vergara & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Edit (ed.),Análisis Empírico del Ahorro en Chile, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 13-48, Central Bank of Chile.
    18. Rodepeter, Ralf & Winter, Joachim, 1999. "Rules of thumb in life-cycle savings models," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-81, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    19. Yulei Luo & Eric R. Young, 2010. "Risk-Sensitive Consumption and Savings under Rational Inattention," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 281-325, October.
    20. Alfonso Palacio Vera, 2008. "The "New consensus"and the Post-Keynesian approach to the analysis of liquidity traps," Documentos de trabajo de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales 08-03, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
    21. Attanasio, Orazio P., 1995. "The intertemporal allocation of consumption: theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 39-56, June.
    22. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos & Serrano, Rafael, 2021. "Optimal control of investment, premium and deductible for a non-life insurance company," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 384-405.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption Function; Bound Testing; Stability Test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:29:y:2017:i:2:p:50. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Division NRB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nrbgvnp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.