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Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)

Author

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  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González

    (Facultad de Economía, UNAM. México.)

Abstract

Esta investigación analiza con un enfoque poskeynesiano la sobre-sensibilidad y las asimetrías ante choques de ingreso del consumo privado y su desagregación en bienes duraderos, semi-duraderos, no-duraderos y los servicios en México para el período 1995-2017. Para estimar la sobresensibilidad se utilizan las metodologías de cointegración de Johansen-Juselius y el método de estimación FMOLS, sin sesgo de endogeneidad de Phillips y Hansen. Para las asimetrías se aplican las pruebas de Seo y Hansen-Seo de cointegración, con regímenes múltiples (cointegración-threshold) y modelos TVECM de vectores de corrección de error, con regímenes múltiples de Seo. Con los resultados se comprueba la existencia de sobre-sensibilidad del consumo privado y del consumo de la mayoría de los bienes por durabilidad (nacional e importado) y comportamientos asimétricos de régimen bajo, consistente con un escenario de crisis económica.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Ángel Mendoza González, 2020. "Sensibilidad y asimetrías ante choques de ingreso en el consumo privado de México, 1995-2017. (Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(1), pages 21-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxxix:y:2020:i:1:p:21-58
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sobre-sensibilidad del consumo; Asimetrías a choques de ingreso; Cointegración con regímenes múltiples; Modelos VECM con regímenes múltiples; TVECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

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