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Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)

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  • Aleksandar Vasilev

    (American University in Bulgaria, Bulgaria)

Abstract

In this paper, an econometric model of consumption in Bulgaria for the period 1997-2005 is constructed. The Error-Correction Model (ECM) approach is employed and long-run relationship between household consumption and income was found. The primary purpose of this empirical paper is to get a better understanding of the factors driving household consumption in Bulgaria and to estimate a consumption function to be used for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that all households behave in a Keynesian way, basing their consumption decisions on current income. JEL Classification: E21; E27

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Vasilev, 2015. "Modeling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in Bulgaria after the Currency Board Implementation (1997-2005)," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 18(1), pages 81-89, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:18:y:2015:i:1:p:81-89
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-987, December.
    2. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    8. Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244.
    9. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    12. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "Are habits important for the propagation of business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria?," EconStor Preprints 182501, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2021. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    3. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "Indeterminacy with preferences featuring multiplicative habits in consumption: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    4. Bokana K.G & Kabongo W.N.S, 2018. "Modelling Real Private Consumption Expenditure in South Africa to Test the Absolute Income Hypothesis," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(5), pages 138-155.
    5. Aleksandar VASILEV, 2020. "The Armey Curve In Bulgaria (2000-18) – Theoretical Considerations And Empirical Results," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 21-26.
    6. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2020. "An RBC model with non-Ricardian households: Lessons for Bulgaria (1999-2018)," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Forthcomi.
    7. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "An RBC model with Epstein-Zin (non-expected-utility) recursive preferences: lessons from Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 182577, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Keynesian consumption function; Permanent Income Hypothesis; Error Correction Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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