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The Responses of Consumption and Prices in Japan to the COVID-19 Crisis and the Tohoku Earthquake

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  • Tsutomu Watanabe

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo. Founder and Technical Advisor, Nowcast Inc.)

Abstract

This note compares the responses of consumption and prices to the COVID-19 shock and another large-scale natural disaster that hit Japan, the Tohoku earthquake in March 2011. The comparison shows that the responses of supermarket sales and prices at a daily frequency during the two crises are quite similar: (1) the year-on-year rate of sales growth increased quickly and reached a peak of 20 percent two weeks after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan, which is quite similar to the response immediately after the earthquake; (2) the items consumers purchased at supermarkets in these two crisis are almost identical; (3) the year-on-year rate of consumer price inflation for goods rose by 0.6 percentage points in response to the coronavirus shock, compared to 2.2 percentage points in the wake of the earthquake. However, evidence suggests that whereas people expected higher inflation for goods and services in the wake of the earthquake, they expect lower inflation in response to the coronavirus shock. This difference in inflation expectations suggests that the economic deterioration due to COVID-19 should be viewed as driven mainly by an adverse aggregate demand shock to face-to-face service industries such as hotels and leisure, transportation, and retail, rather than as driven by an aggregate supply shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The Responses of Consumption and Prices in Japan to the COVID-19 Crisis and the Tohoku Earthquake," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 020, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:upd:utmpwp:020
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences

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    Cited by:

    1. Beck, Günter W. & Carstensen, Kai & Menz, Jan-Oliver & Schnorrenberger, Richard & Wieland, Elisabeth, 2023. "Nowcasting consumer price inflation using high-frequency scanner data: Evidence from Germany," Discussion Papers 34/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Christian Pinshi, 2020. "COVID-19 uncertainty and monetary policy," Working Papers hal-02566796, HAL.
    3. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Uncertainty, monetary policy and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.
    5. Pinshi, Christian P., 2020. "Monetary policy, uncertainty and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 100836, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 May 2020.
    6. Demiessie, Habtamu, 2020. "COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 102625, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Aug 2020.
    7. Hosono, Kaoru, 2021. "Epidemic and Economic Consequences of Voluntary and Request-based Lockdowns in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Hoshi, Kisho & Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Makioka, Ryo & Suzuki, Michio & Tanaka, Satoshi, 2022. "The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People’s movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Saeed, Asif & Chaudhry, Sajid M. & Arif, Ahmed & Ahmed, Rizwan, 2023. "Spillover of energy commodities and inflation in G7 plus Chinese economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    10. Jakub Mućk & Michał Rubaszek & Karol Szafranek, 2021. "A note on the heterogenous economic effects of COVID-19 on GDP via the sectoral structure," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 253-266.
    11. PINSHI, Christian P., 2020. "Préserver l’Économie à l’Ere de la COVID-19 : Une Pensée Optimale à la Fujita [Safeguarding the Economy in the Age of COVID-19: A Fujita-style Optimal Thinking]," MPRA Paper 105107, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2020.
    12. Rahmiye Figen Ceylan & Burhan Ozkan & Esra Mulazimogullari, 2020. "Historical evidence for economic effects of COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(6), pages 817-823, August.
    13. Naoki Tani, 2023. "True Impact of Japan's Covid State of Emergency on Consumption," KIER Working Papers 1092, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    14. Vall Castelló, Judit & Lopez Casasnovas, Guillem, 2021. "The effect of lockdowns and infection rates on supermarket sales," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    15. Satoshi Tanaka, 2022. "Economic Impacts of SARS/MERS/COVID‐19 in Asian Countries," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 41-61, January.
    16. Joao‐Pedro Ferreira & Pedro Ramos & Eduardo Barata & Christa Court & Luís Cruz, 2021. "The impact of COVID‐19 on global value chains: Disruption in nonessential goods production," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 32-54, November.
    17. KIKUCHI Shinnosuke & KITAO Sagiri & MIKOSHIBA Minamo, 2020. "Heterogeneous Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Crisis and Implications for Inequality in Japan," Discussion papers 20039, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Xu, Yingying & Lien, Donald, 2024. "Together in bad times? The effect of COVID-19 on inflation spillovers in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 316-331.

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